513 

FXUS62 KCAE 292344

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

744 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. Increased threat of impactful heat this week and into the

  Independence Day weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1: Increased threat of impactful heat this week and

into the Independence Day weekend.



A strong upper ridge centered over the TN Valley and lower MS 

Valley will migrate slowly northeastward into the OH Valley by 

mid week and then become centered over the Mid-Atlantic by the 

end of the week. This 500mb high is anomalously strong with 

heights at or above the 99th percentile relative to climatology.

As the upper ridge builds closer to the region, temperatures 

should be warming further with highs in the upper 90s to around 

100 degrees for the holiday weekend. Ensembles indicate highly 

anomalous 850mb temperatures over the 90th percentile and ECMWF 

EFI also showing anomalous signals in the max temperature field.



Ensembles indicate lowering atmospheric moisture through mid to

late week with PWATs falling below 50 percent of normal 

supporting a generally dry forecast when combined with the 

strong subsidence of the upper ridge. This should also result in

better deep mixing and lower dewpoints and therefore lower heat

indices mid to late week despite the increasing temperatures. 

Moisture returns to the region over the weekend and likely will 

yield heat indices near heat advisory criteria which may result 

in the need for some heat products. Regardless, throughout the 

entire week and forecast period anyone spending a significant 

amount of time outside should take necessary precautions to 

handle the heat and stay hydrated. Be sure to make heat safety 

preparations now and have a plan to monitor children, the 

elderly, pets, and anyone without adequate indoor cooling.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR Conditions Expected this Evening as Convection Wanes....



A decaying thunderstorm is currently passing near DNL at this

hour and will likely produce lightning within 10 miles of AGS.

This activity should move out of the Augusta area by 01z. Mainly

clear skies and light winds are expected to develop this evening

at all terminals. They'll be a low risk for patchy fog tonight,

mainly at AGS but confidence is not high enough to warrant

inclusion in the TAF there. Dry conditions and northeasterly 

winds are expected to develop on Tuesday.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon convection is less likely

for the remainder of the week as ridging builds overhead. Brief

early morning restrictions also possible this week.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...23/CJR

AVIATION...7