732 

FXUS62 KCAE 291709

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

109 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Isolated strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and

evening. Continued to highlight increasing heat late this week

into the holiday weekend. Aviation discussion updated for the 

18z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. Increased threat of impactful heat this week and into the 

Independence Day weekend.

- 2. Isolated to scattered convection expected this afternoon into 

early evening.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1: Increased threat of impactful heat this week and

into the Independence Day weekend.



A strong upper ridge centered over the TN Valley and lower MS 

Valley today will migrate slowly northeastward into the OH 

Valley by mid week and then become centered over the Mid-

Atlantic by the end of the week. This 500mb high is anomalously 

strong with heights at or above the 99th percentile relative to 

climatology. Temperatures today should push into the mid and 

upper 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s resulting in heat 

indices over 100 degrees. Heat indices likely push over 105 

degrees in parts of the CSRA where moisture will be pooling 

along the weak stalled frontal boundary and a Heat Advisory was 

considered but expected scattered convection led to low 

confidence. 



As the upper ridge builds closer to the region temperatures 

should be warming further with highs in the upper 90s to around 

100 degrees for the holiday weekend. Ensembles indicate highly 

anomalous 850mb temperatures over the 90th percentile and ECMWF

EFI also showing anomalous signals in the max temperature 

field.





Ensembles indicate lowering atmospheric moisture through mid to

late week with PWATs falling below 50 percent of normal 

supporting a generally dry forecast when combined with the 

strong subsidence of the upper ridge. This should also result in

better deep mixing and lower dewpoints and therefore lower heat

indices mid to late week despite the increasing temperatures. 

Moisture returns to the region over the weekend and likely will 

yield heat indices near heat advisory criteria which may result 

in the need for some heat products. Regardless, throughout the 

entire week and forecast period anyone spending a significant 

amount of time outside should take necessary precautions to 

handle the heat and stay hydrated. Be sure to make heat safety 

preparations now and have a plan to monitor children, the 

elderly, pets, and anyone without adequate indoor cooling. 



Key Message 2: Isolated to scattered convection expected this 

afternoon into early evening.



Isolated to scattered convection is expected to develop in an 

increasingly unstable environment generally west of I-26 

corridor in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary over the 

CSRA. MLCAPE values already pushing at or above 2000 J/kg in the

CSRA within an axis of maximum PWATs of 1.8-1.9 inches with 

20-25 knots of shear expected later this afternoon which may 

support a few strong to severe storms. DCAPE values are 

maximized in the CSRA at around 1200 J/kg so damaging wind gusts

would be the primary threat associated with the strongest 

storms. Hi-res guidance generally shows some development 

although differing on timing of initiation, but storms expected 

to develop upstream over western NC and the SC Upstate and shift

southward in the northerly flow aloft. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions likely with an outside chance for isolated showers-

storms.



A weak boundary will continue sagging toward the GA/SC border

this afternoon as drier air filters into the region. Winds have

shifted out of the north-northeast around 5-7 kt. Some 

thunderstorms are still possible at AGS-DNL this afternoon as 

the boundary lingers nearby during peak heating. Confidence 

remains low in direct impacts to terminals, so a PROB30 has been

maintained from 19-23z. This will need to be monitored once we 

have a better idea where storms have developed.



Activity will diminish after sunset, leaving mostly clear skies 

and light winds. Dry conditions continue Tuesday as high

pressure builds into the area.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon convection is less likely

for the remainder of the week as ridging builds overhead. Brief

early morning restrictions also possible this week.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...23

AVIATION...ND