216 

FXUS62 KCAE 290045

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

845 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated discussion of temperatures and heat index values for

Monday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. Increased threat of impactful heat this week and for the

  Independence Day weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1: Increased threat of impactful heat this week and

for the Independence Day weekend.



Peak heat index values could reach 105 degrees on Monday

afternoon in portions of the CSRA. It is possible that a Heat

Advisory could be needed with some of the recent MOS guidance

suggesting highs in the upper 90s, warmer than the NBM. 

Dewpoints will mix into the upper 60s to low 70s in the CSRA 

with lower values to the north and east where atmospheric 

moisture is lower. Given the marginal Heat Index values and

chance of convection in the afternoon confidence in meeting Heat

Advisory criteria is low.



Slightly drier air is expected to filter into the region during

the middle of the week, resulting in somewhat lower heat index 

values, although temperatures will still remain above normal. By

late week and into the holiday weekend, the upper-level ridge 

will start to really flex and strengthen further, with 850-mb 

temperatures approaching or exceeding 20C. This pattern will 

support a continued warming trend, with afternoon highs steadily

climbing and several locations potentially reaching or 

exceeding 100 degrees from Thursday through Sunday. Heat indices

could soar close to or above 105 degrees. If trends continue, 

heat products may be needed several days in a row. Be sure to 

make heat safety preparations now and have a plan to monitor 

children, the elderly, pets, and anyone without adequate indoor 

cooling. 



The NHC maintains a 20% chance for cyclone formation over the 

next 7 days off the SC coast. However, guidance has backed off 

on this quite a bit with development fairly low.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly VFR Conditions Expected at all Terminals Tonight....



A potent line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move

east away from the terminals at this hour. Conditions will

rapidly improve at OGB, with activity moving outside of their 10

mile radius shortly after 00z. Skies should clear this evening

with light and variable winds. Patchy fog is again possible 

tonight, especially where rain does fall. As we get into the 

latter portion of this forecast period, look for winds to shift 

out of the north and northeast behind a backdoor front.





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon convection will develop

again Monday but is less likely for the remainder of the week 

as ridging builds overhead. Brief early morning restrictions 

also possible early next week.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ND/CJR

AVIATION...7