641 

FXUS62 KCAE 281140

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

640 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Confidence is increasing in wedge conditions developing early 

next week and a significant warm up with unsettled weather late 

in the week. Updated 12z TAF discussion.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Significant temperature swing expected Sun/Mon as wedge 

   conditions redevelop.



2. Well above normal temperatures and unsettled weather late week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE #1: Significant temperature swing expected Sun/Mon 

as wedge conditions redevelop.



A weak upper trough axis will be slow to move through the 

region today but will shift east of the forecast area by Sunday 

with zonal westerly 500mb flow expected. A low level 

northwesterly flow at 850mb will develop providing some 

downsloping flow along with 850mb temperature anomalies around 

5-7 degrees above normal resulting in high temperatures on 

Sunday in the 70s to near 80 degrees.



Strong confluent 500mb flow across the Great Lakes into New 

England Sunday night will drive a backdoor front southward 

through the forecast area setting up favorable conditions for at

least in situ wedging if not a cold air damming scenario into 

early next week. The extent of cloud cover remains uncertain as 

upper flow is more westerly than southwesterly atop the 

northeasterly low level near surface winds. A negative factor 

for sustaining a strong wedge is that it doesn't appear there 

will be much precipitation across the area Mon/Tue with most of 

it staying just to our north across NC/VA where shortwave energy

tracks through the westerly flow aloft. Cannot rule out some 

light precipitation across the northern Midlands but chances 

remain low at this time. Nevertheless expect temperatures to be 

below normal each day with highs ranging from the low to mid 50s

northern and western Midlands to low to mid 60s southern 

Midlands and CSRA. 



KEY MESSAGE #2: Well above normal temperatures and unsettled 

weather late week.



A deep upper trough moving into the central Plains by Wednesday

will result in downstream upper ridging over the Carolinas and 

southeastern states with surface high pressure shifting offshore

resulting in a warm southerly flow. A deeper trough digs into 

the four corner region on Thursday and then into the Plains by 

Friday keeping the upper ridging over our area through the end 

of the week. NAEFS is showing strong warm temperature anomalies 

with values above the 90th percentile at all levels from 500mb 

to 1000mb and values up to the 97th percentile at 850mb by 

Friday. This should result in temperatures well above normal 

with highs well into the 70s and lower 80s for the back half of 

next week. In addition to the warm temperatures, unsettled 

weather is expected due to increased instability from persistent

moisture advection from deep south to southwesterly flow at the

surface through 500mb with PWATs approaching 200% of normal 

late in the week and NAEFS showing PWATs above the 90th 

percentile. This should result in some diurnal convection across

the forecast area. Severe weather does not look like a concern 

at this time in our area but rather would remain further to the 

west.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IFR/LIFR Ceilings in place as of 12z with gradual improvement

through the day. Widespread fog likely tonight.



Ceiling heights are currently sitting around 500 feet at all the

terminals. Visibilities have not been much of an issue through

the morning and while there may be some MVFR visibilities,

predominant restrictions will continue to be ceilings through

the morning. Model guidance has been trending later with the

scouring out of the lower clouds so have kept IFR ceilings in at

all terminals until late morning/early afternoon when a

shortwave will move into the area and help to improve

conditions. MVFR ceilings expected to continue through much of

the afternoon and into the evening. With clearing skies tonight,

seems to be a favorable setup for fog with lingering low level

moisture and temperatures likely dropping well below crossover

temps so have included IFR visibilities after midnight. Some 

higher resolution models indicate visibilities could be lower 

but will wait for increased confidence before including any LIFR

conditions. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Nightly low ceiling or visibility 

restrictions will remain possible over the weekend through 

midweek.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HC

AVIATION...96