687 FXUS62 KCAE 310648 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 148 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold temperatures are expected once again into the morning hours under clear skies and light winds. Near or slightly below normal temperatures favored through the remainder of the work week with dry conditions prevailing. Rain chances ramp up Friday night with widespread rain expected Saturday as a low pressure system develops to our west. Dry weather is likely for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Elevated fire danger and breezy winds late this evening may impact outdoor activities. Skies are clear across much of the region early this morning as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Winds are light to calm, with good radiational cooling that has already dropped temperatures into the upper 20s to around 30. Additional cooling is expected in the new few hours, and widespread subfreezing temperatures are expected with lows mostly in the mid to upper 20s. Upper troughing remains the dominant feature over the eastern CONUS today with drying northwest flow aloft. PW values will remain below 0.5" and RH values will fall to below 30 percent this afternoon. SPC maintains an elevated fire danger risk across much of the southeast given these conditions. A surface low will move into New England, through the day causing a tightening pressure gradient over the forecast area. The strongest wind gusts are expected this evening through early Thursday morning. Although dry weather is expected, wind gusts may disrupt outdoor activities planned for the late afternoon through the turn of the new year. Multiple hi-res models suggest westerly gusts may range from 20 to 30 mph, particularly over area lakes. A Lake Wind Advisory was issued for late this evening into early Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Temperatures reach near to slightly above average each day. - Next system approaches late Friday night with rain chances increasing into Saturday morning. Thursday and Thursday Night: Thursday's synoptic pattern will be characterized by persistent troughing over the Eastern US and strong ridging over the western US. Troughing should gradually shift northeast through the day with a surface low located near Maine. A diffuse frontal boundary is expected to creep toward the northern FA by Thursday evening, stretching toward the west before likely stalling here. For sensible weather, low level southwesterly flow should bring high temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s and weakening winds as the surface pressure gradient loosens. Cloud cover should begin to overspread the region overnight and thus low temperatures could fall fairly quick to the low to mid 30s initially before becoming stagnate or even rising toward daybreak as cloud cover moves in. Friday and Friday Night: Majority of Friday is expected to be dry, though strong southwesterly moisture transport should rise PWAT's from around 0.50" in the morning to near 1" by the evening hours. A shortwave will be working toward the region through the day with surface cyclogenesis occurring along the stalled frontal boundary on the eastern fringes of the Southern Plains. As moisture ramps up, mostly cloudy conditions are expected, though afternoon highs should still reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. During the late evening, the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low near and isolated to scattered rain chances may enter the western FA as upper forcing begins to overspread the region and PWAT's near 1.25". Coverage is expected to increase through the night and into Saturday morning, likely becoming fairly widespread by early Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key message(s): - Widespread light to moderate rain Saturday with near to just below average temperatures. - Temperatures rise back to near normal the remainder of the period with drier conditions. The outlook for Saturday remains fairly similar to previous forecast cycles with widespread rain much of the day. The deepening surface low is expected to move across SC through the day with solid upper support from the shortwave. Integrated water vapor transport is depicted reaching the NAEFS 90th percentile Saturday morning with PWAT's reaching 170-200% of normal. A fairly robust 40-45 kt southwesterly LLJ is also depicted in global models and thus periods of moderate rainfall appear likely Saturday morning into the afternoon before lightening and tapering off during the evening and overnight hours. Spread in rainfall totals exists still but LREF and NBM probabilities for greater than 0.50" exceed 60% for much of the FA, especially toward the CSRA and southeastern Midlands. NBM probabilities for greater than 1" in the aforementioned area are reaching near 50% as well with the deterministic GFS and ECMWF both showing an area of totals in the 1-1.5" range. Overall, a widespread 0.50-1" seems likely with this event with spots over 1" possible. With the widespread rain, temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than normal. Behind Saturday's system ensemble and deterministic guidance show weak high pressure filling in for the end of the weekend and into early next week with near to slightly above average temperatures. There is some indication a weak front could near at the end of the long term period, but considerable spread in solutions remains. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Skies should remain clear throughout the forecast period with a very dry air mass in place. Winds light and variable to near calm early this morning before increasing from the west to southwest around 8 to 10 knots after 15z. A few gusts this afternoon of 18-20 kts will also be possible. Winds decrease some early this evening, then pick back up tonight from the west at around 10 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected through Friday when moisture begins to return ahead of the next system. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041- 115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for GAZ040-063>065-077. && $$