031 FXUS65 KBYZ 290654 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1254 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of rain and high elevation snow today, with gusty west winds. Mountain snow will impact travel conditions over the Beartooth Highway. - Wind gusts today of 40-55 mph along the western foothills, and 30-40 mph further east. - Return to seasonable temperatures beginning Tuesday. - Increasing thunderstorm potential Wednesday through Friday; strong to severe storms possible. && .DISCUSSION... ...Through next Sunday... Satellite imagery shows dynamic slow-moving low over the northern Rockies. Mesoanalysis shows mid and upper level low centered just north of Havre along the MT/Canada border. Trowal associated with this low is potent, and producing widespread precipitation from the Canadian Rockies through much of western and north central MT. Snow levels along the MT/ID border are near 8000 feet. Expect snow levels over our western mountains to fall to 8000-9000 feet late tonight through tomorrow. Remarkably low for the end of June. Shortwave lifting out of WY is producing some showers and a few weak embedded (and very elevated) thunderstorms over southeast MT. Precip associated with the trowal will increase from the W-NW through the remainder of the early morning hours, and will impact the area for most of the day. Lower elevation precip will not be heavy per downslope effects, but it will be widespread. Speaking of downslope winds, they will remain gusty through the day with occasional 45-55 mph gusts along the western foothills, especially the US-191 corridor where west winds are favored. Brisk winds gusting 30-40 mph will spread eastward across the lower elevations. Regarding precipitation, the mountains' west aspects will be favored per the location of the trowal. For 1+ inches of precip there is a 85% chance over the Crazy Mountains and 70% chance for the Absarokas. This will translate to several inches of wet snow in the mountains at elevations above 9000 feet. Not a good day for recreation in the high country. Thunderstorm coverage today will be fairly nil but there should be enough instability for a few in the far east. If winds turn easterly there could even be a strong storm or two near the Dakotas border...but there is uncertainty here. Temps today will range from the mid 50s (brrr) along the western foothills to the mid 70s in the east. Upper low lifts northeastward into Manitoba tonight and Tuesday, bringing the precip event to an end (most will taper off by this evening). Winds will remain breezy tomorrow but a definite step down from today. Look for gusts of 25-35 mph, trending lower in the west during the afternoon as pressure falls are induced to our west. There should be enough lingering mid level moisture for isolated late day weak t-storms over the west. High temps Tuesday should rebound to the 70s across the region. General troffing w/ below normal heights remain over the northern Rockies Wednesday to Friday. The combination of embedded shortwaves with increasing moisture and instability (w/ temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s) will yield a chance of thunderstorms on each of these days. Ensembles and AI models suggest a small risk of strong to severe storms, consistent with a conceptual model, though bulk shear may be a bit lacking on Wednesday. Impossible to say with any confidence now, but something to monitor over the next few days, and plan for if you will be outdoors over the latter half of the work week. Ensemble consensus shows a final wave departing to the east and rising heights associated with a building flat ridge next weekend. Cannot rule out a few diurnal weak t-storms but overall Saturday and Sunday look like mostly benign days w/ continued seasonable temps. Current indications are for favorable weather during 4th of July festivities on Saturday. Model spread increases but there is a chance that we see temps back to the 90s as a stronger ridge develops early next week. As we move through the first week of July it would seem to be time for this to happen. Miles City has only seen 3 days this June with a high temp of at least 85F...the lowest since 2014. JKL .AVIATION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spread west to east through this afternoon, decreasing through the evening. Localized MFVR to IFR conditions are possible under the strongest showers. Expect mountain obscuration. West winds increase to widespread 20 to 40 kt gusts by late this morning. There is a moderate chance for low level wind shear near the mountains, including KRED and KSHR, through early this morning. Archer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 066 055/079 055/081 055/083 057/082 057/079 057/086 6/W 10/U 23/T 32/T 13/T 52/T 10/U LVM 056 044/073 046/075 046/079 049/076 047/076 048/085 +/W 43/T 35/T 52/T 16/T 62/T 10/U HDN 071 054/080 053/083 054/086 055/086 055/080 054/087 4/W 10/U 23/T 22/T 12/T 41/B 20/U MLS 073 053/079 054/082 057/087 058/087 059/080 056/086 4/W 10/N 14/T 22/T 22/T 53/W 11/U 4BQ 074 054/080 055/082 056/087 057/087 058/078 056/086 2/W 00/U 34/T 12/T 22/T 42/T 21/U BHK 075 049/077 051/081 053/087 055/085 055/077 052/083 5/T 10/N 14/T 23/T 43/T 64/T 21/U SHR 071 045/078 050/080 051/084 053/083 052/075 050/085 2/W 10/U 34/T 22/T 12/T 34/T 21/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings