963 FXUS61 KBUF 310638 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bands of locally heavy lake effect snow will continue today east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. An approaching clipper system and a change in wind direction will bring lake effect snow northward into the Buffalo Metro area off Lake Erie, and into Watertown off Lake Ontario later today into this evening before lake effect snow moves rapidly south again tonight. The snow will be heavy at times today into this evening with significant travel impacts. Lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through the end of the week with intensity and placement varying with time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Lake effect snow will continue through tonight and beyond off both lakes. A clipper system will cross the Great Lakes today through this evening, complicating the forecast and bringing changes in lake effect snow position with associated changes in wind direction as the clipper crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Off Lake Erie... Lake effect snow will continue on westerly flow across the western Southern Tier and southern Erie County. The lake effect is relatively weak early this morning, but will start to intensify through the morning hours. Boundary layer flow backing to the WSW/SW will carry lake effect snow northward towards the Buffalo Metro area and Genesee County. Increasing moisture and synoptic scale ascent ahead of the clipper along with some boundary layer shear will likely force the lake enhanced snow to broaden out and cover a larger footprint rather than a narrow focused band. The heaviest snow will, at a minimum, reach the immediate Buffalo Southtowns later this afternoon and evening, and possibly reach as far north as the City and Airport. The clipper cold front will cross early to mid evening with a rapid wind shift to the northwest, capturing the area of lake enhanced snow and pushing it rapidly south into the western Southern Tier and away from Buffalo. The lake effect snow will diminish to just light snow across the western Southern Tier overnight with the arrival of drier air. With the expected northward shift of lake enhanced snow, northern Erie and Genesee counties have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Expect 6-12" of accumulation, with the greatest amounts from the Buffalo southtowns to western Genesee County. Snowfall rates may reach 2" per hour at times this afternoon through this evening. Off Lake Ontario... A band of heavy snow will continue to drift slowly northeast across Oswego County this morning, reaching the central Tug Hill region by midday. Boundary layer flow will continue to back to the southwest ahead of the clipper, carrying the lake snow north across Jefferson County through the afternoon. The band may briefly reach north of Watertown late this afternoon before moving rapidly south again this evening as it merges with the clipper cold front. Following the cold front, much weaker lake effect snow showers will develop southeast of Lake Ontario late tonight in drier northwest flow. Snowfall rates will likely reach 3" per hour at times east of Lake Ontario today through this evening in the heavier bands of lake effect snow. Outside of lake effect areas, the clipper system will bring widespread light snow later this afternoon and evening. The clipper cold front will also likely produce a few snow squalls which will extend inland beyond typical lake effect areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Clipper system will send a cold front through the region Thursday. Ridging builds in briefly behind the front along with some drier air helping to weaken the lake snows. Areas southeast of Lake Ontario where the WNW flow over the longer fetch of the lake will have the greatest potential for lake snow to linger through most of the day, and as a result a few inches of snow. Starting Thursday night, a few shortwave troughs, along with a passing weak sfc low will start to increase the potential for snow showers to develop off of both lakes, as well as another round of widespread snow. There still remain some uncertainty among guidance for the timing of the passing troughs, but it looks like starting overnight Thursday the lake effect snow will start to organize more than earlier in the day and the wide spread snow will move through during the morning hours on Friday. By Friday afternoon the widespread snow showers should move out of the area and the lake effect snow will become the dominant source of the snow through Friday night. Lake effect will focus mainly east of both lakes, but brief oscillations to northeast of both lakes is possible at times. Snowfall amounts from Thursday night through Friday night will be greatest east of Lake Ontario where the better lake fetch within the mostly westerly dominant flow will allow lake effect to become better organized. Up to a foot is possible, with a narrow area of up to 18 inches possible if the lake bands persist long enough. East of Lake Erie, 4 to 8 inches is expected during this time. Temperatures behind the earlier passing cold front will drop to teens to near 20 for most areas on Thursday afternoon, and to the upper teens to mid 20s for most areas on Friday afternoon. Overnight lows for both Thursday and Friday nights will be in the single digits to low teens for most areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Several shortwaves will continue to pivot around a deep longwave trough across eastern North America during the long term period. This will effectively keep the broad-scale pattern locked in place with cold air continuing to pour across the lakes and continued opportunities for lake effect snow. This said, the track/timing of these waves and how they will subtly influence the evolution of the trough remains uncertain, and thus the details regarding lake effect snow potential quickly become murky. The greatest chances for lake effect snow looks to be Saturday and Saturday night near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. A wave of low pressure will cross the region on Monday, providing the potential for a round of widespread snow showers across all of western & north central NY. Temperatures through at least early next week will remain below climatological norms for early January. Temperatures will remain in the teens to 20s for most areas through the weekend for afternoon highs. There will likely be a small warming trend starting Monday, though temperatures above freezing will be hard to come by. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow will continue this morning east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with local IFR/LIFR conditions. KJHW will be most impacted through this morning with periods of IFR. A clipper will approach this afternoon with boundary layer flow backing to the southwest and carrying lake effect snow northward off both lakes. The Lake Erie lake effect will reach KBUF by mid afternoon and continue through the evening with moderate to heavy snow, although the heaviest snow may stay just south of the airport. The Lake Ontario lake effect will reach KART by mid afternoon with moderate to heavy snow. Outside of lake effect areas, a general area of widespread light snow will develop with the clipper later this afternoon and evening. The clipper cold front will cross the region this evening, with a rapid wind shift to northwest, pushing lake effect snow rapidly southward. The combination of lake effect bands and the clipper cold front will likely produce a few heavy snow squalls this evening as well, even inland of typical lake effect areas with local/brief IFR/LIFR. Outlook... Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow east/southeast of the lakes. Friday...Local IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers elsewhere. Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Local IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes. && .MARINE... Winds continue to gradually diminish on the eastern Great Lakes, with sustained winds now below gale force on Lake Ontario. Elevated winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through the end of the week on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario before winds diminish over the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ001>003- 021. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006>008. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020- 085. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ013-014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...SW/TMA AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock