465 FXUS61 KBUF 301833 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 133 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passing into eastern Canada today will continue to send colder air into the region. Bands of lake effect snow southeast of the lower Great Lakes will transition to east of the lakes tonight into Wednesday, with localized heavy snowfall. Outside of lake enhanced areas, widespread snowfall will spread across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening with a cold frontal passage Wednesday night. Lake snows will linger through late this week into the weekend across western and north-central New York with localized heavy snowfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Multiple bands of heavy lake effect snowfall continue southeast of the lakes Tuesday shifting northward overnight into early Wednesday: Lake snows today southeast of the lakes have become slightly less organized than earlier in the morning, especially off Lake Erie, with a slot of drier air noted on GOES WV imagery. Upstream connections to Georgian Bay has resulted in an intense band that has settled across Orleans and Monroe Co prompting the need for Winter Weather Advisory issuance late this morning. Northwest winds gusting 35-45 mph has continued to lead to areas of blowing snow, but winds will continue to drop off through Tuesday afternoon. On the back side of the large scale upper level system over eastern Canada, GOES WV imagery shows a shortwave dropping south towards southwestern Ontario passing through this afternoon that will continue to lift snow bands northward through tonight with gradual backing of boundary layer flow. This will bring lake snows east of the lakes Tuesday night with additional synoptic moisture moving in from the west ahead of the clipper system dropping southeast across the Great Lakes. While lake-induced ELs will slightly drop late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening with this shortwave passage, added synoptic moisture will help reinvigorate bands east of the lakes headed into Wednesday with rates increasing towards 1-2" per hour in the heaviest portion of the band resulting in an additional 1-2 feet of snowfall off Lake Erie and off Lake Ontario possible within the most persistent lake bands through Wednesday evening. The band off Lake Ontario will take advantage of westerly flow for a long fetch distance and upstream connections to Lake Huron that could aid in heavier snowfall across the Tug Hill. This will persist into Wednesday evening with a cold frontal passage disrupting lake snows. Behind the cold front, lingering lake snows focus again southeast of the lakes through early Thursday morning with veering boundary layer winds. Widespread snowfall expected for New Year's Eve outside of the main lake enhancement in western NY with a passing clipper system: Broad synoptic forcing will be present overhead with the upper level jet dropping southeast across the midwest supporting of snowfall developing outside of the main lake effect bands Wednesday afternoon. 700mb WAA will help steepen DGZ depth across western NY ahead of the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening. Additional frontal forcing could led to brief periods of moderate snowfall during the evening festivities. Decided to include Winter Weather Advisories for areas outside of the Winter Storm Warnings in western NY starting midday Wednesday with a general 2-4" expected, but locally higher amounts possible near lake enhancement. As the cold front passes through, temperatures will drop into the teens with wind chills dropping below zero in spots. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Behind a passing cold front and quick clipper system, Thursday will feature some lingering light snow showers early in the morning before the snow tapers off from west to east. This will occur as drier air filters into the region and brief ridging helps to cut down on the lake response off of both lakes. Areas southeast of Lake Ontario where the WNW flow over the longer fetch of the lake will have the greatest potential for lake snow to linger through most of the day, and as a result a few inches of snow. Otherwise, of the entire work week, Thursday currently looks like the least snowiest day of the week. Starting Thursday night, a few shortwave troughs, along with a passing weak sfc low will start to increase the potential for snow showers to develop off of both lakes, as well as another round of widespread snow. There still remain some uncertainty among guidance for the timing of the passing troughs, but it looks like starting overnight Thursday the lake effect snow will start to organize more than earlier in the day and the wide spread snow will move through during the morning hours on Friday. By Friday afternoon the widespread snow showers should move out of the area and the lake effect snow will become the dominant source of the snow through Friday night. Lake effect will focus mainly east of both lakes, but brief oscillations to northeast of both lakes is possible at times. Snowfall amounts from Thursday night through Friday night will be greatest east of Lake Ontario where the better lake fetch within the mostly westerly dominant flow will allow lake effect to become better organized. 6 to 12 inches is possible, with a narrow area of up to 18 inches possible if the lake bands become more stationary. East of lake erie, 4 to 7 inches is expected during this time. Temperatures behind the earlier passing cold front will drop to teens to near 20 for most areas on Thursday afternoon, and to the upper teens to mid 20s for most areas on Friday afternoon. Overnight lows for both Thursday and Friday nights will be in the single digits to low teens for most areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Several shortwaves will continue to pivot around a deep longwave trough across eastern North America during the long term period. This will effectively keep the broad-scale pattern locked in place with cold air continuing to pour across the lakes and continued opportunities for lake effect snow. This said, the track/timing of these waves and how they will subtly influence the evolution of the trough remains uncertain, and thus the details regarding lake effect snow potential quickly become murky. The greatest chances for lake effect snow looks to be Saturday and Saturday night near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. A wave of low pressure will cross the region on Monday, providing the potential for a round of widespread snow showers across all of western & north central NY. Temperatures through at least early next week will remain below climatological norms for early January. Temperatures will remain in the teens to 20s for most areas through the weekend for afternoon highs. There will likely be a small warming trend starting Monday, though temperatures above freezing will be hard to come by. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered snow showers from lake effect snows continue to result in periodic MVFR/IFR conditions for area terminals and will continue through this evening. Focus for lake snows will shift from southeast of the lakes to east of the lakes tonight into Wednesday morning before more widespread snowfall spreads over the area in the afternoon. This will bring widespread reductions to visibility outside lake enhanced areas with at least MVFR conditions for most terminals continuing into the evening. Outlook... Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with snow and localized heavier lake effect snow and IFR/LIFR possible east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Thursday...Widespread IFR as a cold front drops across the region with snow, while also briefly weakening lake effect snowbands. Friday...Lake effect lingers off of both Lake Erie & Ontario, resulting in IFR/MVFR flight cats within the lake bands, with MVFR and possibly VFR outside the lake bands. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR with a few lingering snow showers possible. && .MARINE... The trend continues for winds to gradually lower through Tuesday afternoon and evening, but expected gales and high end small craft to continue into early tonight, especially for eastern Lake Ontario. Winds will largely remain in a westerly component direction through the end of the week, with speeds generally 20 to 30 knots maintaining rough conditions on the lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ001>003- 011-021. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ010-013-014. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042-062. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for SLZ022-024. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Brothers NEAR TERM...Brothers SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...PP/SW AVIATION...Brothers MARINE...Brothers/TMA