416 FXUS61 KBUF 300657 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passing into eastern Canada today will continue to send colder air into the region. Bands of lake effect snow continuing downwind of the lower Great Lakes today and tonight, with localized heavy snowfall. Winds will remain gusty and continue to produce blowing snow and localized poor visibility. Lake snows will linger throughout much of the week across western and north-central New York with localized heavy snowfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cold cyclonic flow will continue across the lower Great Lakes today. Multiple multi-lake bands of lake snow currently impacting the region within a general west-northwest flow. While the main focus for lake effect snow and the greatest localized accumulations today will be southeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, upstream connections will likely keep at least a few heavier lake bands across much of the region. Winds not nearly as strong as Monday, but still rather gusty with some localized gusts still 50 to 55 mph. These winds will continue to slowly trend downward this morning. Though a downward trend to the winds, still very blustery today with areas of blowing snow and localized very poor visibility. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave within the base of a long wave trough will pass across our region tonight, and while this may weaken lake effect snow bands, the return of ambient moisture with this shortwave, combined with a digging much strong shortwave trough over the central Great Lakes Wednesday will reinvigorate these snowbands as they lift northward towards Buffalo and Watertown on now a southwest wind flow. Wednesday should be the day with the greatest snow accumulations, with 6 to 12 inches east of Lake Erie and around a foot southeast of Lake Ontario, where the snowband may take on an anticyclonic signature Wednesday morning before lifting towards the Tug Hill. The long fetch over Lake Ontario, combined with upstream lake connections may deposit another foot of snow on the Tug Hill later Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. An arctic front associated with this strong shortwave trough will drop across our region Wednesday night, with widespread snow in addition to loosely organized lake snow bands. Northwest winds behind this front will lower apparent temperatures into the lower single digits for New Year's Eve festivities. Cold for Thursday behind this front with temperatures only recovering to the mid to upper teens for most areas. Lake effect snow will organize as wind shear lowers through the day and as winds veer to northwest behind the front, lake bands of snow will be sent back southward across the lake belts southeast of the Lakes. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Several robust shortwaves will pivot around a deep longwave trough across eastern North America over the weekend. This will effectively keep the broad-scale pattern locked in place with cold air continuing to pour across the lakes and continued opportunities for lake effect snow. This said, the track/timing of these waves and how they will subtly influence the evolution of the trough remains uncertain, and thus the details regarding lake effect snow potential quickly become murky. Long range ensembles have trended a bit faster with a shift to northwesterly flow Friday into Friday night and the arrival of drier air, especially over Lake Erie. If this overall solution verifies, the bands of lake effect snow initially oriented east to northeast of the lakes Friday should see a southward shift and weaken overall. Thereafter increasing shear from the approaching high introduces further uncertainty in the orientation of the steering flow for any additional lake effect, though the greatest chances Saturday and Saturday night look to be near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. There may be another shift to southwesterly ahead of a wave of low pressure Monday, though this wave will also bring chances for snow outside the main lake effect areas as well. Temperatures through at least early next week will to average below climatological normal for early January. There will likely be a small warming trend Saturday through Monday, though temperatures above freezing will be hard to come by. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... West-northwest winds still remaining high with gusts continuing at 25 to 35 knots, with occasional gusts as high as 45 knots. These winds will trend downward slowly through this morning, before settling into the 20 to 30 knot range by this afternoon. Bands of lake effect snow will continue through the day. Main focus for the lake snows will be southeast of the lakes, but multiple upstream connection will bring the potential for lake bands to all terminal today. When not in snow showers, sites will likely become periodically VFR, however IFR as snow showers move through. Outlook... Tonight through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with scattered snow showers. Localized heavier lake effect snow and IFR/LIFR possible east/southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Thursday...Widespread IFR as a cold front drops across the region with snow, while also briefly weakening lake effect snowbands. Friday...Lake effect lingers off of both Lake Erie & Ontario, resulting in IFR/MVFR flight cats within the lake bands, with MVFR and possibly VFR outside the lake bands. Saturday...Mainly MVFR/VFR with a few lingering snow showers possible. && .MARINE... Gales continuing on the lakes this morning. The trend will be for winds to gradually lower, but expected gales and high end small craft to continue into tonight. Winds will largely remain in a westerly component direction through the end of the week, with speeds generally 20 to 30 knots maintaining rough conditions on the lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001>003-007- 010>012-019-020-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ003. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ004>006-008- 013-014-021. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ006>008. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ012-019-020- 085. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ021. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ042-062. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for SLZ022-024. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas/TMA LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...Fries/TMA MARINE...Brothers/TMA