718 FXUS61 KBTV 310638 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 138 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread snow arrives this evening and tonight, with most areas seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow by daybreak tomorrow and 2 to 6 inches expected in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York. Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with occasional chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 137 AM EST Wednesday... **A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York 4 PM this afternoon through 7 AM tomorrow morning. **Lake enhanced snow will transition to lighter, fluffier snow this evening through tomorrow morning, accumulating around 2 to 6 inches in these two counties. **Plan on slippery road conditions and periods of poor visibility during the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes, as well as a period between 8 PM and 1 AM when snow may be particularly heavy. Upslope snow showers are expected to taper off this morning with dry conditions into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise into the upper teens and 20s today, still 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals but much milder than yesterday. Morning wind gusts 15-20 knots out of the southwest will decrease in the afternoon. Then, southwesterly flow will transport Lake Ontario moisture into the region, causing some light to moderate snowfall to develop across northern New York in the afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure will slide across or just southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight as a large upper low moves across Ontario and Quebec to the north and northwest. We're expecting a band of moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario and between the two lows, likely in the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and northern Greens. Unfortunately for those ringing in the new year across northern New York, the heaviest snow is anticipated right around 8 PM through 1 AM, so please use caution if traveling anywhere for the celebrations. The surface low is expected to drag a cold front through the forecast area tonight as well, transitioning the snowfall from a lower ratio lake enhanced snow to a lighter, fluffier, high ratio snow that will blow around more easily tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s around midnight on New Year's Day, falling into the bitter -5 to 15 F range as the front draws in colder air. Winds will be on the increase again tonight out of the northwest, peaking tomorrow morning as snow comes to an end with gusts 10-25 knots, higher on mountaintops and on Lake Champlain. This is likely to blow around snow, allowing treacherous travel conditions to continue after snow ends. Temperatures tomorrow will only reach the single digits to mid 20s despite decreasing clouds, running 10-20 degrees below averages. Plus, the gusty winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the negatives. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...Tomorrow night will be especially frigid with clear patches in the sky at times, though winds are expected to decrease. Lows are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below negative. Then, Friday will be yet another cold day with highs in the teens and lower 20s and increasing clouds as flow turns once more out of the southwest, increasing chances of some more lake enhanced snow showers in northern New York, about 30-60% chance of measurable precipitation in southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. Moisture has about a 10-30% chance of making its way out to the Champlain Valley and northern Greens to produce the odd snow shower. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM EST Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern will prevail with troughiness over Vermont and northern New York as we initiate 2026. Seasonably cool weather will be favored between intervals of dry weather. Occasional troughs embedded within the cyclonic flow will be able to pull some lake moisture into the region to produce some snow and reinforce cool air in place. So temperatures in the daytime will largely remain in the 20s with nighttime lows in the single digits to teens, and as we approach, we'll monitor whether any clearer patches can allow some radiational cooling. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...IFR conditions continue at SLK . An arctic inversion is expected to lower, and MVFR ceilings will be possible through 03z. Continued drying and unblocked flow will eventually cause clouds to scatter. Any lingering snow showers will also end. Sustained northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots, locally higher, and gusts 20 to 30 knots will continue before slowly subsiding overnight. Snow showers are likely to begin lifting back northeastwards into the region beyond 18z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. New Years Day: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Storm NEAR TERM...Storm SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles EQUIPMENT...Team BTV