630 FXUS65 KBOU 300016 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 616 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be present in the high country through Wednesday due to warm, dry and windy conditions. - Little change in the forecast pattern through the next several days. The only exception will be for a chance of thunderstorms over the plains on Tuesday. - A couple strong storms possible across far northeastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon/evening. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 After several consecutive forecast shifts with largely the same synoptic pattern in place across the region, I've just about run out of adjectives to describe this relentless period of hot/dry, critical fire weather conditions that have had a grip over much of the region over the last several days. Unfortunately, there's still little reason to believe any significant change is in store over the next week or so... and critical fire weather conditions will be the theme of this forecast discussion and the subsequent Fire Wx section further below. Water vapor satellite and RAP analysis data shows a strong shortwave trough lifting into eastern Wyoming this afternoon, with a very dry airmass over most of Colorado. This is further confirmed by surface data from across our higher elevations, where stronger subsidence has mixed out dew points into the single digits to as low as -12F at Vail Pass. Gusty winds are also a common sight across the region, associated with the 500mb speed max that is starting to depart the area. Critical fire weather conditions are widespread across the higher elevations. Meanwhile, it's two distinct stories for the lower elevations. A pronounced Denver cyclone is spinning pretty close to TDEN/KFTG, with weaker easterly/northeasterly flow on the north side of this feature. Gusty southwesterly winds have been observed across the southern Denver metro, Palmer Divide, and Lincoln county with RH falling as low to the single digits. We should see a another gradient across the metro/plains with high temperatures this afternoon in the mid/upper 80s on the cool side of the boundary, and upper 80s to mid 90s to the south. The next shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will track across the region tomorrow. Gradual lee cyclogenesis should allow southeasterly flow to develop across the plains, leading to some slow moisture advection/moisture return for most of the lower elevations. It will take a while for surface dew points to return to the 40s to 50s meaning that instability will be slow to develop across the far eastern plains during the day. However, it appears we'll destabilize just enough for a few storms to develop with the passing shortwave. With southwesterly flow aloft, there should be roughly about 30-45kt of deep layer shear to work with, and I suppose there's a chance for a strong storm or two during the evening hours. Beyond that, there's little else new to discuss. West- southwesterly flow aloft is expected to continue for the next several days as the broad trough over the western CONUS slowly weakens and a strong upper high sits across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A few shortwaves track through the region but largely look to be dry. Warmer temperatures are likely to end the week, with mid 90s possible on Friday. Both of these two features do eventually look like they'll weaken closer to next weekend, though the general thought is that ridging will build back over the region as we approach next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 614 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Winds are currently northeast across the Denver metro and the cyclone that formed earlier this afternoon appears to have dissolved and moved east. Southerly drainage flow will return by 06Z, and winds will likely stay S-SSW through the morning hours. Uncertainty returns to the forecast in the afternoon given the potential for a cyclone developing once again. If a cyclone develops between KAPA and KDEN (as we have seen over the last two afternoons), winds will remain easterly through the early afternoon before a counterclockwise shift to NE around 21Z-22Z. Another point of uncertainty regarding winds will be the slight chance for high-based showers in the vicinity of the airports. We have opted to leave shower activity out of the TAF given that our confidence remains low (20% chance) at this time, but a dry microburst cannot be ruled out, particularly in the vicinity of KAPA and KDEN. Current satellite imagery shows the smoke plumes from wildfires in western CO are over the Denver metro area and starting to reduce slant-range visibility. Smoke concentrations are projected to decrease by late morning, but plumes will likely be advected back into the region around sunset (00Z-03Z). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Critical fire weather conditions remain possible/likely each afternoon this week, especially over the higher elevations. Dry subsident flow has led to RH really tanking across the high country along/south of I-70, where RH has fallen into the single digits. Deeper mixing along the Palmer Divide and plains has also allowed gusty winds to develop and mix out the little remaining surface moisture there. Though fuels were a bit more marginal there, the combination of ~5% RH and gusts of 35-45 mph earlier was enough to pull the trigger on a Red Flag Warning for the rest of the afternoon. As winds aloft slowly decrease over the next couple of days, critical fire weather conditions are expected to gradually contract a bit. Still most of the higher elevations are expected to see critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday, and again on both Wednesday and Thursday. There is considerably less confidence in the wind forecasts by Thursday and Friday as the pattern begins to (very slowly) break down with winds aloft continuing to weaken. While it is likely that additional Fire Weather highlights are needed, it is also likely that these will largely be confined to the high mountains and mountain valleys where wind gusts can more easily mix down. It's also possible that daytime heating is eventually affected by increasing smoke concentrations aloft could impact daytime heating and subsequently mixing/wind gust potential... but this is far too uncertain to introduce to the official forecast at this time. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ211>214- 216>218. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ212>214-216. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ241-246-247. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...AA FIRE WEATHER...Hiris