204 FXUS65 KBOU 291119 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 519 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be present in the high country through Wednesday due to warm, dry and windy conditions. - Little change in the forecast pattern through Friday. The only exception will be for a chance of thunderstorms over the plains on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 For today, an upper level trough will extend from the nrn Rockies into California. This will allow for the continuation of dry SW flow aloft over the area. Across nern CO, another weak cool front was moving across currently, however, low level moisture was decreasing behind it. Thus do not expect any tstm activity across the plains this afternoon or tonight. Meanwhile 850-700 temps do cool a few degrees today so aftn highs across the plans will be in the mid 80's to lower 90's By Tue, SW flow aloft will continue as a disturbance moves from the Great Basin into Wyoming by Tue night. At the sfc, the low level flow will become S/SSE across the plains as a lee trough develops along the I-25 Corridor. As a result, this will allow some return of lower level moisture by aftn with a pseudo dryline setting up just east of the I-25 Corridor. Analysis of soundings continue to show there is still a fairly decent cap in place so not sure about how much tstm activity there will be in the aftn across the plains. Low level moisture does continue to increase by evening over the nern plains with MLCAPE rising to around 1500 j/kg. If cap can be broken then may see sct tstms develop by early evening mainly along and north of a Greeley to Fort Morgan to Akron line. Meanwhile shear profile is favorable enough for a few marginal svr storms. Highs on Tue will be in the upper 80's to lower 90's across the plains. For Wed thru Fri, the flow aloft will continue from the SW. Overall, still don't see much moisture embedded in the flow so the higher terrain will likely remain dry. Across the plains, a sfc lee trogh will remain over the plains. Although there will be some low level moisture and favorable CAPE over portions of the plains, there is still a decent cap. Thus any tstm activity will probably be rather isold. Highs across the plains will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's each day. Looking ahead to the 4th of July, the flow aloft will become more westerly as a weak system moves across the nrn Rockies. This may allow for a cool front to move across nern CO Fri night into Sat. Depending on how much low level moisture there is behind this front may lead to a slight chc of tstms across the plains by aftn. Across the higher terrain is still looks mainly dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/... Issued at 508 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Winds were light and variable early this morning. As talked about in previous discussion, for the late morning thru early evening hours, once again will be dealing with a Denver cyclone and associated shear zone. Models have been way too aggressive in mixing out SW winds coming off the higher terrain recently and it may happen again this aftn. The only model that seems to have a handle on the situation is the Canadian. As a result, have trended winds at DIA to the SE by 15z and then NE by 18z. At BJC, will have an ENE wind by 15z and then more NE by 20Z. At APA, will have south winds by 16z and then switching to more of a SW direction by 20Z. For this evening, expect winds to gradually trend to drainage by 05z or 06z. Meanwhile, fires over UT and wrn CO will continue to advect smoke over the area thru tonight. Currently denser smoke as seen on satellite and observations is from ern Boulder county extending north to the WY border. HRRR smoke shows another surge of smoke coming in by mid to late aftn and covering the area tonight. Near sfc smoke is fcst to worsen tonight into Tue morning. Have kept smoke in the TAF's and there could be some slantwise visibility issues at some point, especially tonight, but still not sure on timing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue across the higher terrain this afternoon into the early evening hours. Tuesday will see more elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the hgher terrain so have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the afternoon into the early evening hours. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions look likely to continue across most of the higher elevations through Friday, with the potential for some of the warmest/driest air to reach the area by late in the week. There is also some concern about fuels status along the northern Foothills and most of the I-25 corridor/Palmer Divide...and if fuels status changes over the next few days, some fire weather highlights may need to be expanded into those regions going forward. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ211>214-216>218. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ212>214-216. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...RPK FIRE WEATHER...RPK