560 FXUS65 KBOU 010002 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 502 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler Sunday with a few light mountain snow showers (limited impacts). - Warm and dry Monday, with potential for locally critical fire weather conditions south of I-70. - Mountain snow and low-elevation rain likely (80% chance) Monday night into Tuesday, favoring areas roughly north of I-70. - Additional opportunities for precipitation through late week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 1121 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 The month of February is wrapping up like it started, in other words mild and dry, and with today's highs climbing well into the 60's, it'll go into the books as one of our warmest on record (3rd for Denver, 2nd for Boulder, and warmest on record for Fort Collins). As far as weather is concerned, lingering pressure gradient-driven winds continue to produce breezy conditions in our foothills and close to the Wyoming/Nebraska state line, with gusts 30-45 mph and ongoing critical fire weather conditions for our northernmost plains counties. Elsewhere though, it's a much calmer day with a pronounced anticyclonic circulation keeping lighter east flow in place away from the Cheyenne Ridge. Pressure gradients (GJT-DEN) have weakened by ~1mb over the past couple of hours, and will continue to do so through this evening. Speaking of this evening, a weak backdoor cold front will fill in from our east, helping to usher in cooler air for Sunday with more widespread (albeit light) easterly flow anchored in place. Highs will thus fall by 6-10 degrees for the lower elevations, with a more subdued trend in the high country. Aloft, a subtle shortwave will advect increased moisture into the region, providing for greater cloud cover and supporting light snow showers across the higher mountain elevations Sunday. These will bring little in the way of accumulation, given a lack of synoptic support (QG subsidence in place) and relatively weak orographic flow. Additionally, temperatures are set to keep snow levels above 9,000-10,000 ft through the day. This will reduce snow ratios and impacts, with accumulations of a dusting to 2" for most areas, or as high as 3" for favored northern mountain locations. Monday, an upper-level low will push into the Intermountain West, with increased southwest flow along the leading edge of the trough. The subsident flow regime will promote warmer temperatures, and much of the lower elevations look to break 70F under dry conditions. Areas roughly south of I-70 are favored to be breeziest given their proximity to the modest jet core, and we may see locally critical fire weather conditions develop as a result, mainly across the far southern foothills and the Palmer Divide into Lincoln County. Headlines may need to be considered if current trends hold. Late in the day, the northern mountains could see enough moisture move in for a few light snow showers. The upper low is poised to drift over Colorado as an open wave Tuesday, bringing our best shot at widespread precipitation in quite some time. Areas north of I-70 will be better positioned in terms of precipitation chances (over 80%) as well as for the higher accumulations, but ample spread remains in QPF fields. Mountain travel impacts can be expected for the northern mountains in particular, where the probability of at least 1/4" (liquid equivalent) is approximately 70%, but confidence decreases sharply towards the I-70 corridor. For the lower elevations, temperatures are anticipated to be too warm to support wintry precipitation, outside of perhaps the Palmer Divide late in the day. Healthy frontogenesis could support some localized bullseyes of greater rainfall, but there's limited agreement in the location of said features still. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest an active pattern over the western CONUS for the second half of the week, favoring deeper troughing to our west and potential phasing of low pressure systems late week. Cluster analysis indicates significant uncertainty however, driven in large part by timing and location differences between ensemble members when it comes to the progression of the potential cutoff low to our southwest. Thursday appears to be the earliest that snow could return to our mountains, with a majority of guidance delaying the onset of any such chances for the lower elevations to Friday. Generally this window favors a colder system and thus greater potential for snow for the plains and urban corridor, but there are still a few failure modes that would result in little to no precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/... Issued at 434 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Easterly winds are currently in place across the TAF sites this evening. Expecting a gradual southeasterly turn by 3Z to south by 5Z at KDEN/KAPA, with potential gusts to around 20kts possible with the southerly winds. Winds at KBJC are looking to be a bit more variable before becoming NW by 6Z. Disruptions to the typical drainage winds look likely around 11Z, that will bring a few hours of light and variable winds across all TAF sites, with a slight more northerly tendency. Winds will generally be light through the day tomorrow, with a NW to NE transition through the afternoon, and speeds to remain under 10kts, though confidence is low in precise wind directions. There is higher confidence in wind directions for Sunday evening, where a southeast to south transition is expected between 3-6Z at KDEN. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ238-242-248. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRQ AVIATION...9