293 FXUS65 KBOI 282014 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 214 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across southwest Idaho. - Precipitation will persist across the West Central mountains through Monday, with another round of showers returning Tuesday afternoon. - Warmer and drier conditions Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening, with the main focus across southwest Idaho as moisture moves in from the north on the backside of the upper level low. The greatest chance for thunderstorm activity will be over the higher terrain south of the Snake River Plain during peak afternoon and evening heating before tapering off tonight. There is a 30% chance for these light rain showers to reach the Treasure and Magic Valleys tonight through Monday morning, though rainfall looks to be minimal. Showers will continue across the West Central mountains through Monday, finally coming to an end Monday night as the parent low moves east into the northern plains. The central mountains will see additional precipitation totals between 0.25 and 0.75 inches through Monday. Areas above 7500 feet could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of snowfall tonight. A broad upper level trough remains over the area on Tuesday. This persistent large-scale pattern will allow a weak shortwave passage to cross the region, triggering another round of showers across the west central mountains. Temperatures will remain well below normal, tracking roughly 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages through the short term period under the influence of the trough. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Troughing over the region will support isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain of SW Idaho, and cooler than normal conditions through the end of the week. Most guidance shows this trough deepening just to our west throughout the week. With flow taking on more of a southwesterly compenent, temperatures will steadily warm. As of now it appears that this warming trend will be more gradual in eastern Oregon. Come Friday, the trough finally looks to progress east of our area, this will temporarily hinder the warming trend on Friday, before a building ridge behind the trough brings temperatures back up to near normal. The timely exit of this trough will make way for a pleasant Forth of July, with near normal temperatures and dry conditions. The pattern evolution becomes more uncertain to end the period, although the Grand Ensemble favors continued ridging...and therefore continued warm and dry conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1148 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026 Generally VFR. Isolated to scattered showers continuing through the period, mainly in the W-Central ID Mtns. MVFR/IFR conditions possible in mtn showers. Mtns obscured. Isolated lightning this afternoon near the ID/NV border and in the W-Central ID Mtns. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt this afternoon. Then variable 5-10 kt overnight, except W-SW 10-15 kt near KJER/KTWF. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers this afternoon and evening. Most likely time of rain at terminal between Mon/00-06z. Foothills obscured. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon. Then variable (leaning S-SE) under 8 kt overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF