393 

FXUS65 KBOI 010340

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

840 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026



.DISCUSSION...Light precipitation has moved into the region 

this evening in advance of a weakening upper trough. 

Thunderstorms have stayed south of the OR/NV border, initiating 

over nrn CA and tracking west to east. Overnight shower 

development will be focused across SE Oregon and far SW Idaho 

where precipitation chances remain 30-50%. It's looking more 

likely that areas further north will remain dry through the

night. Will keep low end precipitation chances (20-30%) to 

capture light rain/mtn snow potential across the Snake Plain and

w-central ID and Boise Mtns. Precipitation type is mostly rain 

with snow levels of 6-8kft MSL. No update to the forecast for 

tonight.



&&



.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Light precip and virga expanding 

northward tonight/Sunday. Local MVFR-IFR developing in mtn snow

and heavier rain showers. Snow levels 6-8kft MSL. Mtns 

obscured. A 10% chance of lightning near OR-NV border Sunday PM.

Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt, gusts up to 30 kt with 

convection. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to SW 10-20 kt.



KBOI...VFR. Periods of light rain/virga overnight through Sunday. 

Then, rain and MVFR ceilings likely (>60% chance) late Sun/early 

Mon. Surface winds: variable around 5 kt.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Pacific system will 

move ENE-ward across our southern zones tonight and Sunday with

scattered showers (20-40% coverage), weakening as it moves away

from main upper low near 40/135. We also have isolated thunder-

storms (10% coverage) near the Nevada border this evening. 

Showers will increase in the southern half of our CWA Sunday 

night and Monday as the main upper low comes inland through 

northern California and across northern Nevada. Snow levels 

will stay above 7000 feet MSL in southern areas (where the pcpn

is). Temps will stay mild, more like mid-April than early March.

Monday will be the warmest day in the short term with highs 60 

to 65 in the Treasure Valley and southern Malheur County. Monday

night will be 8-14 degrees cooler than the previous nights 

under clearing skies. Winds will be light and variable through 

Monday morning except 20-30 mph outflow gusts from stronger 

showers. Winds will become west-northwest 10-15 mph later Monday

behind the departing system. 



LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Tuesday will be dry and

clear with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. The 

upper level ridge responsible will quickly move east by Tuesday 

night. Clouds increase ahead of an approaching trough and cold 

front. The frontal passage reduces snow levels to 3500-4500 ft 

MSL by Thursday morning, with widespread precipitation expected 

late Wednesday morning through the evening. Scattered 

precipitation continues Wednesday night through Thursday as the 

moist northwesterly flow behind the frontal remains unsettled. 

Building high pressure in the north Pacific steadily decreases 

precipitation chances each day.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...None.



&&



$$



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DISCUSSION...DG

AVIATION.....SH

SHORT TERM...LC

LONG TERM....JM