953 FXUS65 KBOI 281048 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 348 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...A weak system off the CA coast will slowly track inland with increasing clouds this afternoon. Scattered showers (30-50% chance) develop in SE Oregon late this afternoon with slight chance (10% chance) of thunderstorms along the NV border. Showers weaken overnight with the loss of daytime heating on Sunday morning, but reform again during the afternoon, with a slight chance of thunderstorms (10-20% chance) mainly over eastern OR and south of the Snake Basin in ID. Snow levels range from 7000-8000ft with this system. Minimal snow accumulations expected over the mountains. Showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoon have the potential to produce gusty outflow winds up to 30-40 mph. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Upper level ridging returns on Tuesday ahead of the next system. Temperatures Tuesday will be the warmest of the period, with mid 60s possible across the Snake Basin, or around 10-15 degrees above normal. Ensembles bring a potent cold front through the area on Wednesday afternoon, with snow levels falling to 3500-4500 feet by Thursday. Snow showers continue over the higher terrain Thursday with the cold unstable air aloft. Conditions dry out on Friday between systems. A return to cool and unsettled by the following weekend with moist northwest flow expected and temperatures slightly below normal. && .AVIATION...VFR. Increasing clouds and showers developing in the afternoon in E OR with MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration. Snow levels: 7000-8500 ft MSL. A 15% chance of afternoon lightning near NV border. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: westerly 10-30 kt, strongest north of KBKE to KSNT. KBOI...VFR. Wind: SE 5-10 kt during the night, NW 5kt during the afternoon. Sunday Outlook...Showers expanding northward Sunday. A 15% chance of lightning near NV border. MVFR-IFR developing in mtn snow and heavier rain showers. Mtns obscured. Snow levels: 6-8kft MSL, lower for north. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt, gusts up to 35 kt with storms. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....KA