477 

FXUS64 KBMX 291838

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

138 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 125 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026



- Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat risk across

  Central Alabama through much of this week. A Heat Advisory is in

  effect through 9 pm Wednesday for the northwestern portion of

  central Alabama, and through 9 pm Tuesday for the remainder of

  central Alabama.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This afternoon through Sunday)

Issued at 125 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026



Focus of this forecast will remain the heat and humidity,

especially through the rest of the work week. Latest observations

from reliable weather stations indicate heat indices around

central Alabama are climbing above 100 degrees in many areas, with

a few already around 105. Similar conditions (maybe a tick higher)

are forecast for Tuesday. The Heat Advisory continues overnight

and through tomorrow for all of central Alabama. Based on the

latest forecast numbers for Wednesday, we've gone ahead and

extended the Heat Advisory for the northwestern portion (along and

north of a Sumter-Shelby-Cherokee County line) through 9 pm

Wednesday.



The center of the big upper ridge responsible for the enhanced

heat/humidity combo is forecast to push northeastward over the

coming days, which will put us on the south side of the bubble.

A tropical easterly flow, and a slight weakening of the subsidence

associated with the upper high, will allow for diurnal

thunderstorm development through the rest of the week. Best rain

chances each day will largely be determined by mesoscale

influences (previous days' leftover boundaries, cloudy/clear

boundaries, elevated heat sources, etc.). POPs in the 20-30

percent range seem reasonable. As the ridge further breaks down

over the weekend and early next week, then POPs are likely to inch

up a bit more.



/61/



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026



No big changes and should be no big surprises in the TAF forecasts

for the 18z cycle. Latest models strongly support the idea that  

conditions will remain VFR through the period, with a few cumulus 

clouds in the afternoon, and winds under 10 kts.



Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data

issues with observations are resolved.



/61/



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Rainfree conditions are expected through tonight. Slightly better

diurnal convection chances are expected by Tuesday, which will

last through the rest of the week. Outside of pockets of rain, 

the primary story through this week will be the heat and humidity.

Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as minimum relative 

humidity will remain well above critical values.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     76  97  77  96 /   0  10  10  20 

Anniston    76  96  76  95 /   0  20  10  20 

Birmingham  77  97  78  96 /   0  10  10  20 

Tuscaloosa  77  97  78  96 /   0  10  20  20 

Calera      77 100  76  98 /   0  10  10  20 

Auburn      77  94  75  92 /   0  40  10  10 

Montgomery  77  95  76  93 /   0  30  20  10 

Troy        76  95  74  93 /   0  50  20  10 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following 

counties: Bibb-Blount-Cherokee-Chilton-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-

Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-

Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.



Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: 

Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-

Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-

Randolph-Russell-Talladega-Tallapoosa.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.../61/

AVIATION.../61/