281 FXUS64 KBMX 291109 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 609 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 602 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026 - Hot and humid conditions will lead to elevated heat risk across Central Alabama through much of this week. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 9 pm Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026 Our main story to start off is our hot and humid temperatures that are expected through the short term thanks to ridging. A heat advisory continues to be in effect for Monday and Tuesday. We will be evaluating daily the need to extend the advisory as we go through the week. Regardless of advisories, the overall heat risk will be elevated. Rainfree conditions are expected through Monday night with weak surface ridging in place over the gulf coast. At present we have an upper ridge developing across the midsection of the US including Texas, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the Deep South. Any significant fronts are expected to remain well to the north of Alabama, and surface ridging is expected to expand across much of Eastern Conus through this week. By Tuesday, guidance continues to show a shortwave that will begin to make its way around the large Eastern Conus upper ridge. This wave will help to provide a focus for isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection as it propagates around the ridge for through mid week. This could be the caveat that may help with the heat risk for some of the southeast counties if temperatures end up lower with increased convection for midweek. We will also need to watch for any short lived, unorganized stronger storms that could produce gusty winds. For Wednesday into Thursday, the upper ridge will slowly nudge eastward toward the Atlantic States. At the same time, a trough begins to develop behind it breaking the weak ridging across the Southern US. This should increase rain chances slightly as we head into the weekend. Again, the increased activity may help alleviate some of the heat risk, but just where is too soon to tell. 08 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the 24-hour forecast period at all sites, with ridging in place and only fair-weather cumulus/cirrus at times. Winds will become west-northwest at 5 to 10 kts with mixing this afternoon. There are some local restrictions at EET and TCL this morning, so continued with some brief MVFR at this time. Note: AMD NOT SKED will continue for the AUO TAF until data issues with observations are resolved. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rainfree conditions are expected through Monday. Slightly better diurnal convection chances are expected by Tuesday. Outside of pockets of rain, the primary story through this week will be the heat and humidity. Fire weather impacts are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity will remain well above critical values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 96 75 97 77 / 0 0 30 0 Anniston 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 30 10 Birmingham 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 20 0 Tuscaloosa 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 20 10 Calera 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 30 10 Auburn 96 77 93 76 / 0 0 50 0 Montgomery 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 40 10 Troy 96 75 94 75 / 0 0 50 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory through 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock- Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas- Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...16