301 FXUS64 KBMX 010001 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 601 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026 - Medium to high chance of visibilities less than 1 mile late tonight through mid morning Sunday across the southeastern portions of Central Alabama. - A dry and above normal temperature pattern will continue through the weekend and into mid week. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1127 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026 Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave trough pulling off the southeast coast as weak ridging begins to build into the region. Much drier air is in place with GOES TPW imagery picking up PWATs generally from 0.3-0.5". A thin layer of low level moisture beneath the drier air led to some stubborn dense fog this morning. Another round of potentially dense fog is expected tonight over many of the same locations. HREF guidance suggests a ~70% chance of vis less than 1 mile. Latest RAP/NAM guidance also supports this with condensation pressure deficits from 1-5mb with dewpoint depressions less than 1 degree. Otherwise, look for warming temps and rain-free conditions through the remainder of the weekend. We look to remain dry through the middle of next week. A few upper level impulses attempt to head our way but are steered away by mid level ridging in place. A stronger wave ejects out of the Plains by Thursday which will bring a 20-30% chance of rain back into the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026 All TAF sites are VFR ATTM. That will change as we have a medium to high chance of another late night into mid morning of low stratus and dense fog the the SE portions of C AL affecting MGM and AUO as temps cool. Conditions will deteriorate between 6-8z to MVFR and then go down further to IFR-LIFR ~10z. Reduced vsbys and low stratus will likely hang around through mid morning ~15-16z. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air in place this afternoon will allow RH values to fall into the 25-35% range across our western areas. Further east will see min RHs in the 40-50% range. Light winds will help negate any fire weather concerns. For Sunday through the middle of next week, min RH values are forecast to fall into the 30-40% range each afternoon with little to no chance for any rainfall. Looking into the long-term forecast, soil and fuel moistures will continue to drop as afternoon temperatures rise into the 70s and perhaps into the 80s by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 43 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 45 76 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 48 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 48 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 47 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 49 77 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 47 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 47 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08