019 FXUS64 KBMX 301143 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 543 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025 - Cold weather expected to continue today with gusty winds keeping wind chills in the 30s for most of the area. - High chance (80-90%) for rain Friday with 30% chance of thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025 Cold and dry conditions are expected again today across Central AL. High temps will remain in the 40s with a few spots across the north struggling to hit 40. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through at least midweek with diurnal temperatures moderating slightly as we go through Wednesday and into Thursday. A shortwave trough will slide through the Plains and develop a low pressure system Thursday into Friday. This low will slide through Central AL leading to increased rain and thunderstorm chances. The upper level pattern remains generally zonal with little upper level height falls, so the big question will be whether the warm front lifts far enough northward for a more moist air mass to advect into Central AL. For now, I'll continue mention for low chances (20-30%) of thunderstorms Friday into early Saturday. A the low shifts eastward, high pressure builds into the Southeastern CONUS Sunday into Monday. This will lead to rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures for the start of next week. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025 TAFs are expected to remain VFR over the next 24 hours. On satellite this AM, there is an area of wrap around MVFR cigs across TN into N AL. Although there has been off/on FEW028 at BHM, this area of clouds looks to be eroding on satellite and will forgo cigs at BHM ATTM. Otherwise, only cirrus is noted across the SRN part of AL that is scraping MGM/AUO. Winds will be NW during the day 7-12kts with a few gusts possible. Winds should taper down this evening with surface pressure gradients expected to relax. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... The cold and dry air mass will remain in place through roughly mid- week before increasing moisture and rain chances build back in Friday into Saturday. Min RHs will reach near critical levels Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be around 10mph sustained with gusts to 15mph on Tuesday and decrease by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 41 22 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 42 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 41 25 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 43 25 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 44 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 44 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 45 24 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 45 25 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...08