221 FXUS63 KBIS 010410 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1010 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow will continue to diminish from west to east this evening. - Below normal temperatures tonight and Sunday central to near or above normal temperatures southwest. - Near to above normal temperatures favored for next week. Wednesday is forecast to be the warmest day when southwest North Dakota could see highs above 60 degrees. - Little to no precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday. A more active weather pattern is then favored for the end of next week and into the following week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 No significant changes with the late evening updated. There are still some flurries around over central ND. Made some minor adjustments here, but for now still keeping them only through midnight. No accumulations expected. UPDATE Issued at 504 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 We extended the light snow through the afternoon with flurries early this evening. The FG forcing and synoptic scale forcing has all but ended across the forecast area. However, and strong upper level jet remains over the area with some modest warm advection with continued steep lapse rates. This is resulting in mainly flurries or a little light snow with little in the way of additional accumulations, but we may need to extend flurries through a good portion of the evening, especially south central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Northwesterly flow can be found over the northern Plains this afternoon. Light snowfall is anticipated to linger over portions of central North Dakota into the James River Valley through the mid afternoon. With the dissipation strong FG forcing previously found over much of North Dakota, the heavier snowfall previously found this morning is not longer anticipated. That being said, some minor snowfall enhancement can be found under a jet streak slowly sliding to the east across south central North Dakota this afternoon. Otherwise for today, breezy winds are expected in the southwest and in the southern James River Valley this afternoon. Sustained speeds up to around 15 MPH and gusts as high as 25 MPH are possible. High temperatures today remain near to below normal this afternoon, from the 20s to lower 30s southwest, to the single digits to mid teens northwest and central. Lows tonight are expected to be from the single digits below zero central, to the single digits to lower teens above west. Northwesterly flow will turn increasingly zonal through the Day Sunday, keeping conditions across western and central North Dakota relatively dry. With this pattern allowing for the greater penetration of the thermal axis into the northern Plains. With this moderate warm air advection, there is a low chance for isolated flurries across western and portions of central North Dakota Sunday morning, though warming highs in the upper teens and 20s central to the 30s to lower 30s west are expected in the afternoon. Periods of breezy south winds, with speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH, will be possible in the morning through the afternoon. Looking ahead into next week, there is strong agreement between model members that a split-flow regime will develop across the northern Plains as a cut-off low moves into the western CONUS. With this, mainly dry and warming weather is expected for western and central North Dakota. Slightly to well above normal high temperatures in the 30s north central to 50s southwest are expected, with portions of the far southwest even peaking into the 60s anticipated by Wednesday. While consensus on a shortwave trough reintroducing chances for precpitation to the northern Plains Thursday through the end of the week is similarly high, a good amount of uncertainty remains about the details. The ensemble becomes split between a "warm" solution (60 percent memberships) that captures a mix of rain and snow across the forecast area, while a "cool" solution has much more of the precpitation falling as accumulating snow. Depending on which solution, there's a 20 to 25 degree spread in high temperatures Thursday onward. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 954 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Variable clouds to begin the 06Z TAF period. MVFR conditions to begin the period at KDIK and KMOT with VFR conditions at the remaining TAF sites. However a lot of different cloud layers as well as breaks in the clouds. In general, models look to increase cloudiness over central ND through around Mid morning and then break it up, with VFR conditions across the forecast areas by Sunday afternoon. Western ND and the JRV may see more breaks and VFR conditions than central ND overnight and early Sunday. Generally light winds initially, the increasing as they turn southeast on Sunday with winds of 10 to 20 knots by Sunday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...TWH