229 

FXUS63 KBIS 281755

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

1155 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Snow will continue to diminish from west to east through the

  afternoon. 



- Below normal temperatures this weekend, coldest tonight with

  lows mostly in the single digits above and below zero.



- Near to above normal temperatures favored for next week.

  Wednesday is forecast to be the warmest day when southwest

  North Dakota could see highs above 60 degrees.



- Little to no precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday. 

  A more active weather pattern is then favored through the end 

  of next week and into the following week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



The band of heavier snowfall has all but pushed south out of 

North Dakota at the time of this mid day update. The tail end of

this band will will linger in the far south over the next hour 

or so, so an additional snow accumulation around an inch will 

be possible along the ND/SD border. Overall, light snowfall will

continue to diminish from west to east through the early 

afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire

on time at noon CST / 11am MST. Have made some slight 

adjustments to the PoPs with this update, but overall the 

forecast remains on track at this time. 



UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Accumulating snowfall continues across much of western and

central North Dakota this morning. With a resurgence of

mid level Fgen, back end of the mesoscale band of moderate to 

heavy snowfall has extended back into the northwest. With this 

in mind, we have extended portions of the Winter Weather 

Advisory across western and south central North Dakota through 

noon CST. Broadly speaking, additional snow accumulations up to 

2 inches are expected to the west of the Missouri River, while 

another 1 to 3 inches are expected east of the river and south 

of Highway 200. Have made some slight adjustments to the PoPs to

account for this redevelopment. Otherwise, the forecast remains

on track. 



UPDATE

Issued at 621 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



At 6 AM CST, a mesoscale band of heavy snow was located from 

northwest of Bismarck all the way through northeast South Dakota

and into southern Minnesota. This band is being maintained by 

very strong mid level frontogenesis that is analyzed to be 

directly under the left exit region of an upper level jet 

streak. Steep mid level lapse rates as high as 8 C/km and a deep

dendritic growth zone are also contributing to enhanced 

snowfall rates. In a span of just over 3 hours, 4.1 inches of 

snow has fallen at the Bismarck Airport, with a snow-to-liquid 

ratio near 35:1. Radar trends suggest that the most intense part

of the band should soon slide southeast of the Bismarck/Mandan 

area. Some locations to the south and east of Bismarck, 

including Hazelton, Napoleon, Wishek, and Ellendale could see 

over 6 inches of snow through this morning, with several hours 

of snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 321 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



A well-established northwest flow pattern resides over the 

Northern Plains this morning. Upper air analysis indicates a 

300 mb jet streak pointed from southern Alberta into southwest 

North Dakota. This jet resides over a low to mid level 

baroclinic zone with tightly packed isotherms. Snow has been 

falling along the cooler edge of the 850 temperature gradient 

since late last evening, and strong low level frontogenesis has 

contributed to periods of embedded mesoscale banding in 

southwest and more recently south central North Dakota. Mid 

level frontogenesis is also analyzed to be strong and displaced 

to the north and east of the low level frontogenesis, but it is 

contending with a low level layer of dry air being reinforced by

northeasterly flow eminating from an Arctic high pressure 

centered over southern Manitoba that has ridging extending south

through the Red River Valley. So far, both the broad area of 

snow and embedded banding features have been located to the 

south and west of where recent consensus guidance had settled 

on. We do anticipate that the snow will slowly expand eastward 

through mid morning as areas from north central to southeast 

North Dakota receive a boost in synoptic scale forcing from 

differential cyclonic vorticity advection, the origins of which 

can be seen on water vapor imagery over southern Saskatchewan. 

Modeled frontogenesis remains strong through mid morning, so we 

may continue to see periods of banding with heavier snowfall 

rates. If the observed behavior of the mesoscale snow bands 

translates through the event, it is unlikely that there will be 

any one band that remains over a similar area for long enough to

prompt an upgrade to a warning. Having that said, high snow 

ratios around 20:1 could easily push local amounts above 6 

inches, but the light and fluffy characteristic of the snow 

with winds under 15 mph should keep impacts mostly at advisory 

level, even where banding does occur. 



The only change that was made to the Winter Weather Advisory 

from its initial issuance was to add Slope and Adams Counties 

late last night on account of observed banding. Northern edges 

of the advisory, particularly Williams and McLean Counties, now 

have lower chances of exceeding 3 inches of snow, but we are 

reluctant to remove the advisory from areas where snow is still 

falling or just beginning to fall. One aspect of the advisory 

that may need to be adjusted is the end time as recent guidance 

has delayed the departure of the snow, but there is still more 

time to evaluate as the western portion of the advisory is not 

set to expire until 9 AM CST.



After the conclusion of this snowfall event, mostly dry weather

is expected through the middle of next week. Northwest flow 

aloft will remain in place through at least the weekend, 

followed by a transition to more of a split, quasi-zonal flow 

pattern early next week. Previous forecasts had maintained low 

to medium chances for light snow across southern North Dakota on

Sunday, but this potential has diminished as the magnitude of 

low level warm air advection is no longer expected to be as 

strong as previously thought. 



Today and tonight will be seasonably cold for most areas, with 

highs ranging from near zero in the Turtle Mountains to near 30 

in the southwest corner of the state, and lows mostly in the 

single digits above and below zero. Sunday will be warmer, but 

still below normal for most areas as the Arctic high slides 

towards the Great Lakes. A much milder Pacific air mass is then 

forecast to bring temperatures back above normal through the 

first half of the work week, culminating on Wednesday when the 

NBM shows medium to high chances for near-record highs in the 

60s in southwest North Dakota, and at least 40s and 50s for all 

but the far north central and northeast.



There is now ensemble agreement on a shortwave ejecting from 

the central Rockies into the Northern Plains on Thursday. The 

evolution of this system with its precipitation types, amounts, 

and location remains uncertain, but there are low chances for 

accumulating snow across parts of the state. There is also now a

distinct cool down in the NBM temperature trend lines from 

Wednesday to Thursday, but that comes with an increase in 

spread. The larger spread of the temperature distributions 

carries through next weekend, but the middle 50 percent of the 

distribution mostly stays in the normal to well above normal 

range. Ensembles also continue to indicate a more active pattern

continuing through next weekend and into the second week of 

March, but it now looks like this could take the form of either 

a deep western CONUS trough driving southwest flow over the 

Northern Plains or a quasi-zonal northern stream split flow 

with a cutoff low near southern/Baja California.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Lingering light snow and flurries will continue to promote 

periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities through the early afternoon.

MVFR ceilings will similarly linger across much of the area through 

the afternoon, starting to gradually lift by the early to mid 

evening. VFR ceilings and visibility is then broadly anticipated 

tonight through Sunday morning. 



Generally light winds our of the northeast this afternoon with turn 

south southeasterly this evening through Sunday morning, becoming 

breezy across the west with speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 

knots. 



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Adam/Hollan

DISCUSSION...Hollan

AVIATION...Adam