135 

FXUS63 KBIS 280929

AFDBIS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

329 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Accumulating snow across much of western and central North

  Dakota will end from west to east later this morning and

  afternoon.



- Below normal temperatures this weekend, coldest tonight with

  lows mostly in the single digits above and below zero.



- Near to above normal temperatures favored for next week.

  Wednesday is forecast to be the warmest day when southwest

  North Dakota could see highs above 60 degrees.



- Little to no precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday. 

  A more active weather pattern is then favored through the end 

  of next week and into the following week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 321 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



A well-established northwest flow pattern resides over the 

Northern Plains this morning. Upper air analysis indicates a 

300 mb jet streak pointed from southern Alberta into southwest 

North Dakota. This jet resides over a low to mid level 

baroclinic zone with tightly packed isotherms. Snow has been 

falling along the cooler edge of the 850 temperature gradient 

since late last evening, and strong low level frontogenesis has 

contributed to periods of embedded mesoscale banding in 

southwest and more recently south central North Dakota. Mid 

level frontogenesis is also analyzed to be strong and displaced 

to the north and east of the low level frontogenesis, but it is 

contending with a low level layer of dry air being reinforced by

northeasterly flow eminating from an Arctic high pressure 

centered over southern Manitoba that has ridging extending south

through the Red River Valley. So far, both the broad area of 

snow and embedded banding features have been located to the 

south and west of where recent consensus guidance had settled 

on. We do anticipate that the snow will slowly expand eastward 

through mid morning as areas from north central to southeast 

North Dakota receive a boost in synoptic scale forcing from 

differential cyclonic vorticity advection, the origins of which 

can be seen on water vapor imagery over southern Saskatchewan. 

Modeled frontogenesis remains strong through mid morning, so we 

may continue to see periods of banding with heavier snowfall 

rates. If the observed behavior of the mesoscale snow bands 

translates through the event, it is unlikely that there will be 

any one band that remains over a similar area for long enough to

prompt an upgrade to a warning. Having that said, high snow 

ratios around 20:1 could easily push local amounts above 6 

inches, but the light and fluffy characteristic of the snow 

with winds under 15 mph should keep impacts mostly at advisory 

level, even where banding does occur. 



The only change that was made to the Winter Weather Advisory 

from its initial issuance was to add Slope and Adams Counties 

late last night on account of observed banding. Northern edges 

of the advisory, particularly Williams and McLean Counties, now 

have lower chances of exceeding 3 inches of snow, but we are 

reluctant to remove the advisory from areas where snow is still 

falling or just beginning to fall. One aspect of the advisory 

that may need to be adjusted is the end time as recent guidance 

has delayed the departure of the snow, but there is still more 

time to evaluate as the western portion of the advisory is not 

set to expire until 9 AM CST.



After the conclusion of this snowfall event, mostly dry weather

is expected through the middle of next week. Northwest flow 

aloft will remain in place through at least the weekend, 

followed by a transition to more of a split, quasi-zonal flow 

pattern early next week. Previous forecasts had maintained low 

to medium chances for light snow across southern North Dakota on

Sunday, but this potential has diminished as the magnitude of 

low level warm air advection is no longer expected to be as 

strong as previously thought. 



Today and tonight will be seasonably cold for most areas, with 

highs ranging from near zero in the Turtle Mountains to near 30 

in the southwest corner of the state, and lows mostly in the 

single digits above and below zero. Sunday will be warmer, but 

still below normal for most areas as the Arctic high slides 

towards the Great Lakes. A much milder Pacific air mass is then 

forecast to bring temperatures back above normal through the 

first half of the work week, culminating on Wednesday when the 

NBM shows medium to high chances for near-record highs in the 

60s in southwest North Dakota, and at least 40s and 50s for all 

but the far north central and northeast.



There is now ensemble agreement on a shortwave ejecting from 

the central Rockies into the Northern Plains on Thursday. The 

evolution of this system with its precipitation types, amounts, 

and location remains uncertain, but there are low chances for 

accumulating snow across parts of the state. There is also now a

distinct cool down in the NBM temperature trend lines from 

Wednesday to Thursday, but that comes with an increase in 

spread. The larger spread of the temperature distributions 

carries through next weekend, but the middle 50 percent of the 

distribution mostly stays in the normal to well above normal 

range. Ensembles also continue to indicate a more active pattern

continuing through next weekend and into the second week of 

March, but it now looks like this could take the form of either 

a deep western CONUS trough driving southwest flow over the 

Northern Plains or a quasi-zonal northern stream split flow 

with a cutoff low near southern/Baja California.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Snow with mostly IFR to at times LIFR conditions continues

across western and south central North Dakota early this

morning. The snow is expected to slowly drift eastward through

the morning, reaching KMOT and KJMS by sunrise. Snow should 

taper off from west to east from around mid morning to early 

afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings may linger after the 

snow ends, possibly through the end of the 06Z TAF period in 

some areas. Easterly to northeasterly winds around 10 kts 

expected at all terminals through this afternoon.



&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning 

for NDZ009-017>020-031>034-040>042-044-045.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ021-

035>037-046>048-050-051.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Hollan

AVIATION...TWH/Hollan