313 FXUS63 KBIS 302049 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 249 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for light snow accumulations (less than an inch) north central into the northern James river Valley late tonight into Wednesday morning. Low chances for at least an inch of snow around the Turtle Mountains. - Mild temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s tonight. Then temperatures falling through the day most areas. Highs northwest and central will be early in the day. Still mild southwest though with highs in the lower 30s. - Low chances for patchy fog northwest and central late tonight into New Years Eve. - The large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder) to southwest (warmer) through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Currently, skies were partly to mostly cloudy across western and central ND, with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s as a warm front has pushed through the entire state. Precipitation has pretty much pushed east of the forecast area. there was a brief period of UP recently near Bottineau, but amazingly air temperatures and surface temperatures were both above freezing and precip was very light. There was additional precipitation over southwest Manitoba, but it was moving southeast and currently looks like it may just miss the north central this afternoon. The next wave tracks through the forecast area this evening through Wednesday morning. Currently, guidance suggests that snowfall with this system will be mainly confined to the north central into the James River Valley, with only light accumulations (less than and inch). Only the Turtle Mountains area is seeing low probabilities for an inch or more of snow. Probably the more interesting and possibly the more impactful story could be the temperature trend through tomorrow and the possibility for low stratus/fog and possibly some freezing drizzle somewhere across northwest and central ND. The clipper that pushed through last night into this morning will push a backdoor cold front back into western/central ND tonight. Behind the next clipper (that brings the light snow to north central into eastern ND) will have a reinforcing shot of cold air with it, that pushes the cold front west through the state. After a mild night tonight with lows mostly in the 20s. Temperatures most areas will fall through the day Wednesday. Thus highs will be early in the morning. The southwest looks to be the only areas that sees any significant temperature rises tomorrow afternoon. Late afternoon temperature are forecast to be below zero around the Turtle Mountains, and in the single digits above zero most areas in the northwest and east of the Highway 83 corridor in central ND. Another forecast issue is the potential for low stratus and fog to develop along the westward pushing cold front late tonight into Wednesday morning. Forecast RAP/HRRR low level RH suggest an areas of stratus pushing from northeast to southwest this evening and overnight, possibly reaching the far southwest Wednesday before beginning to work back to the east. Don't have a good feeling about the potential for fog, and especially drizzle/freezing drizzle this evening into tonight. Did end up adding an area of patchy fog from northwest to southeast across the forecast area, similar to the area covered by the NBM probability for visibilities less than 3SM (generally 20 to 30 percent in this area). On Wednesday, and into New Years Day morning, if this low status remains along the baroclinic zone, think the potential for fog and flurries/freezing drizzle may increase. Will hold off on anything more than the patchy fog for now though. Certainly something to monitor going forward given the Holiday and all. Otherwise New Year's Day and Friday look to be mainly dry, with low chances for light snow, mainly north and east over the weekend. The wide range in temperatures will continue through the Holiday weekend, with warmest temperatures southwest to coldest in the Turtle Mountains area. High temperatures in the mid 40s will be possible over the weekend in southwest North Dakota. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Expect mainly VFR conditions to begin the 18Z TAF period, although there are some patches of MVFR clouds that may briefly pass over the southern TAF sites early in the period, before lifting to VFR category. Northwest Surface flow today generally 10 to 20 kts, but could be a little higher from KMOT to KJMS this afternoon. Wind diminish this evening and turn north to northeast tonight from east to west as a backdoor cold front pushes west through the forecast area. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings behind the cold front, with these MVFR to IFR ceilings remaining through the remainder of the TAF period, once clouds move in. Possibly some IFR-LIFR cigs vsbys along the leading edge of the stratus as it pushes west tonight into Wednesday morning, but at this time too uncertain to add to any one TAF. Also, too uncertain for any mention of precip at any site attim. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH