017 FXUS61 KBGM 310756 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 256 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There were some minor changes made to this forecast, mainly to PoPs and snowfall totals to cover the current activity. Winter weather advisory was cancelled for Cortland and Chenango counties. Within the main band of snow downwind of Lake Ontario, an additional 4 to 8 inches will be possible through noon today across northern Oneida County. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lake effect snow band should lift north of Oneida County by early this afternoon. An additional 4 - 8 inches will be possible this morning. 2) A frontal system will pass through the region tonight and with potential for snow squalls. Lake effect snow redevelops Thursday morning. 3) Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue Friday through Monday with below average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The main lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario continues to lift northward this morning. This band will mostly impact Oneida County through late morning or early this afternoon with an additional 4 to 8 inches of snowfall possible. In addition, the Lake Erie band has weakened considerably, but it will still bring some light snow into NY's Southern Tier. Additional snowfall accumulations will be possible in Steuben County this morning. Advisories were dropped for Cortland and Chenango County and will likely be allowed to expire at Otsego County at 7am. A decision will be made on the winter storm warning later this morning, but likely the warning will need to remain in effect for at least northern Oneida county. KEY MESSAGE 2... Following the lake effect snow today, a frontal system will drop into the region and bring a round of snow showers and squalls across the region tonight. Snowfall accumulations will be 1 to 4 inches, but could be locally higher. Squalls could impact travel for those out celebrating the beginning of the new year tonight and this has been highlighted in the HWO for now. Behind the front, northwesterly flow will advect in colder air leading to the coldest day of the forecast period on New Year's Day. Also, lake effect snow redevelops Thursday morning. Many of the same areas in CNY that were impacted by this early week set up will see additional snowfall once again, though accumulations will be much lighter, but advisories or a low end LES warning may be needed. Flow will become more southwesterly by Friday morning, so any organized bands that do develop are expected to drift north of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold air mass remains locked in place over our region Friday onwards with broad upper level trough over the northeast. Below average temperatures are expected with 850 mb temperatures averaging -15 through the weekend. West to northwest flow continues with a few short waves passing through. This will produce lake effect snow showers with some enhancement with the passing waves. While it is too early to pinpoint exact snowfall totals, additional snowfall accumulations will be possible, especially on Saturday night as a passing shortwave will enhance lake effect snow. Lake effect snow may linger into through Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow band is lifting north tonight but looks to stall around RME. LIFR conditions are expected at RME through much of the night before the band lifts farther north after 12Z. There is a chance that it lifts north sooner and with how narrow it is, there is lower confidence in the length of the LIFR. A Lake Erie snow band will bring some light snow to ELM and BGM in the mid morning but snow should be light and mainly MVFR expected. More snow moves in with a clipper system late tomorrow afternoon. Right now snow has slowed down so operational impacts were pushed back a few hours closer to 0Z. Squalls look more likely with a cold front passage so a Prob30 group has been added for the timing of the squalls. Impacts will likely be LIFR in the worst of the squalls but there is some uncertainty if airports will be impacted by the worst ones. Outlook... Wednesday night...Periods of snow likely with IFR restrictions expected (moderate to high confidence). Lake effect redevelops at SYR and RME towards Thursday morning. Thursday through Sunday...Restrictions possible as lake effect snow showers are expected to continue. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-018- 036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ022. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ046. && $$ DISCUSSION...BTL/ES/MPK AVIATION...AJG