194 FXUS61 KBGM 310559 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1259 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There were minor changes made to this forecast, mainly to PoPs and snowfall totals to cover the current activity. No changes were made to the current headlines with snow ongoing and winds remaining gusty. Within the main band of snow downwind of Lake Ontario, an additional 5 to 10 inches will be possible through the overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lake effect snow continues through Wednesday as winds gradually decrease tonight. 2) A frontal system will pass through the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night and bring a potential for snow squalls New Year's Eve night. Lake effect snow redevelops Thursday. 3) Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue Friday through the weekend with below average temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue this afternoon as flow becomes more westerly and snow showers gradually drift north of the region overnight. Multiple bands will remain present through at least the afternoon and possibly into the evening. Then tonight there will be one main band off of Lake Ontario that will set up around the NYS Thruway Corridor before lifting north by Wednesday morning. This band will continue to impact the counties within the Winter Storm Warning with additional 5 to 8 inches of snowfall possible. That will likely push some overall totals with this event to over 2 feet. In addition, a Lake Erie band will develop tonight and extend into NY's Southern Tier. Additional snowfall accumulations will be possible in Steuben County tonight and then in the Finger Lakes region as the band lifts north Wednesday. No changes were made to the current winter headlines. Despite slightly calmer winds compared to this morning, winds remain quite gusty. The Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire region as observations have shown gusts occasionally between 45 and 50 mph. These stronger winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow, especially in open areas. Winds will remain breezy overnight but gradually become calmer. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7pm this evening. As a result of these stronger winds, wind chills will stay in the single digits for most of the area today and tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Following the lake effect snow late Wednesday, a frontal system will drop into the region and bring a round of light snow across the region. Snowfall accumulations will be 1 to 4 inches but could be locally higher. With this update, the highest amounts are expected in the higher elevations of Cortland, Onondaga, and S. Cayuga Counties with totals around advisory criteria but it was decided to hold off on any advisories given the borderline amounts. There will be some instability, steep lapse rates, and gusty winds that could lead to scattered snow squalls NYE night. This could impact travel for those out celebrating the beginning of the new year. Behind the front, northwesterly flow will advect in colder air leading to the coldest day of the forecast period and lake effect snow redeveloping by Thursday morning. Many of the same areas in CNY that were impacted by this early week set up will see additional snowfall once again, though accumulations will be light. Flow will become more southwesterly by Friday morning, so any organized bands that do develop are expected to drift north of the region. KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold air mass remains locked in place over our region Friday onwards with broad upper level trough over the northeast. Below average temperatures are expected with 850 mb temperatures averaging -15 through the weekend. West to northwest flow continues with a few short waves passing through. This will produce lake effect snow showers with some enhancement with the passing waves. While it is too early to pinpoint exact snowfall totals, additional snowfall accumulations will be possible. Surface temperatures will range in the 20s during the day with lows in the teens overnight. Some drier air moves into the region Sunday though some light lake effect snow may linger into Sunday. Winds appear to shift southwest briefly on Monday as a short wave approaches the region from the west. This brings an additional chance of snow showers. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect snow band is lifting north tonight but looks to stall around RME. LIFR conditions are expected at RME through much of the night before the band lifts farther north after 12Z. There is a chance that it lifts north sooner and with how narrow it is, there is lower confidence in the length of the LIFR. A Lake Erie snow band will bring some light snow to ELM and BGM in the mid morning but snow should be light and mainly MVFR expected. More snow moves in with a clipper system late tomorrow afternoon. Right now snow has slowed down so operational impacts were pushed back a few hours closer to 0Z. Squalls look more likely with a cold front passage so a Prob30 group has been added for the timing of the squalls. Impacts will likely be LIFR in the worst of the squalls but there is some uncertainty if airports will be impacted by the worst ones. Outlook... Wednesday night...Periods of snow likely with IFR restrictions expected (moderate to high confidence). Lake effect redevelops at SYR and RME towards Thursday morning. Thursday through Sunday...Restrictions possible as lake effect snow showers are expected to continue. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ009- 018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ022. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ044>046. && $$ DISCUSSION...BTL/ES AVIATION...AJG