866 FXUS61 KBGM 300746 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 246 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There were some minor changes made to this forecast. Latest meso models show heavier lake effect snow over southern Cayuga County, so they were added to the winter storm warning. Still a very favorable forecast for long duration lake effect snow event. Strong wind shear is hindering band development some early this morning, but that should decrease later today. Models are depicting a well organized, and larger heavy band expected for Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties from mid morning through this evening, and 1 to 2 feet of snow is will be possible, with locally higher amounts. Near blizzard conditions can be expected at times today in the winter storm warning counties due to high winds forecasted into this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong winds are expect through this evening. A few gusts could exceed 50 mph. 2) A long duration lake effect snow event will impact north central NY today and persist through Thursday. Strong winds will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with periods of reduced visibility and near blizzard conditions at times. 3) Cold and snowy weather continues through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong cold air advection continues today as an arctic cold front passes early this morning. Northwesterly winds will gusts above 50 mph at times this morning through this afternoon. Winds will likely stay elevated until tonight and then decrease through the overnight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lake effect snow showers will continue today. As of early Tuesday morning, the Lake Ontario snow band has been fairly narrow and has taken a little more time to organize than expected. This is likely due to the strong wind shear, but as shear weakens later this morning into early this afternoon, a larger and well organized lake effect band of snow is likely to develop. Snowfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches per hour from from this morning through this afternoon. Cold air advection on persistent west northwest to westerly flow, will allow lake effect snow to continue through much of the week, with brief lulls possible as winds temporarily shift due to passing shortwaves. We did slightly lower snowfall totals with this mornings update, as the band has taken more time to get organized due to that strong wind shear mentioned above. However, as shear weakens later this morning, there should be a period of very heavy snowfall and this should keep the forecast snowfall totals consistent with 1 to 2 feet forecast across portions of Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties. A winter storm warning for lake effect snow remains in effect for these areas. Decided to add southern Cayuga County to the warning this morning as model guidance is showing amounts across the northern edge of the forecast zone above 1 foot. Winter weather advisories also remain effect from south and east of the warned region. Heavy lake effect snow combined with strong gusty winds will result in widespread blowing and drifting snow, potentially producing blizzard like whiteout conditions at times. Additionally, another cold front or clipper system moving through the region Wednesday night may bring the potential for snow squalls. KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold northwest flow will support additional lake effect snow behind Wednesday's clipper system. Lake effect will develop again Thursday morning through at least the first half of the weekend. Flow will then vary between west and northwest Friday and Saturday leading to the main band of lake of snow drifting north of the region at times. While it is too early to pinpoint exact snowfall totals, additional snowfall accumulations will be possible. As of now, guidance is not showing as favorable of a set up compared to what is expected early this week. Some drier air moves into the region Sunday though some light lake effect snow may linger into Sunday. The second half of the week will be below normal for temperatures. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with highs only in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and low teens. Following Thursday, temperatures will then be slightly warmer but still chilly. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lake effect snow showers will be affecting the region over the next 24 hours. These lake effect showers will contain LIFR vis with falling and blowing snow. The snow bands are very narrow so timing their impacts is going to be tough with highest confidence only over the next 3 to 6 hours. SYR and RME have the best chance at LIFR for extended periods of time over the next 24 hours being in the favored location for the lake effect. ITH, ELM and BGM will have more intermittent LIFR conditions over the next 24 hours. AVP will likely be missed by most of the bands but there is a low chance that a band will move through either tonight or late morning tomorrow. Outlook... Tuesday night...Winds remain gusty but gradually diminish. Restrictive lake effect snow showers, especially KSYR-KRME but at least occasionally the other NY terminals. KSYR-KRME may have combination of heavy snow and blowing snow at times, with below 1 mile visibility. Wednesday...Lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers for mainly the NY terminals, but cannot rule out some showers making it south to KAVP. Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible behind a cold front that brings snow showers to the region. Limited to mainly KSYR- KRME by Friday and Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-017- 018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ022. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ044>046. && $$ DISCUSSION...BTL/ES/MPK AVIATION...AJG