112 FXUS63 KAPX 281922 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 222 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold nights tonight and Sunday night. Wind chills in the teens below zero late tonight eastern upper MI. - Warmer temps return next week, with active weather at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Eastern CONUS/Canada upper troffing will contribute to chilly conditions as we transition to March and meteorological spring. (Noting that early March is often not particularly springlike in these parts.) Surface high pressure over s central Canada will build se toward the northern lakes Sunday afternoon. This will provide continued cold but mainly quiet wx into Sunday night. Near term...mid-level fgen is increasing into the sw lakes, just in advance of a clipper shortwave targeting the central/southern lakes tonight. Associated synoptic cloud cover is increasing in western parts of this forecast area this afternoon. But actual snow is in southern WI, on a path to pass south of northern MI. Though models do still argue for a wobble north in lower MI, this would only graze southern Gladwin Co at most. However, lake effect snow may be somewhat reinvigorated by the increased moisture and bump in inversion heights. A thin coating of snow is possible tonight in Leelanau/Benzie/Manistee Cos. Something similar in pure lake effect off of Superior into western/central Chippewa Co. Overnight, cloud cover will thin as deeper subsidence arrives behind the departing clipper. That will contribute to more aggressive temp falls overnight, especially as veering (light) winds drag non-marine-influenced air into eastern upper MI. Min temps tonight drop to around -10f in Chippewa Co, and near 0f in parts of n central lower MI. Wind chills stay in the minus teens in the UP, short of needing a cold-related headline. Less cloud cover expected for Sunday, though parts of nw lower/eastern upper MI will hang onto lake clouds, especially in the AM. A chilly start and overall cool airmass will keep temp climbs in check. Highs in the teens north, upper teens to mid 20s in most of northern lower. Cold again Sunday night, with mins in single digits above and below zero. Longer term...upper troffing over eastern NA tends to deamplify and eject eastward. That looks set to eject Arctic air from northern MI for a while. The rebound will be somewhat gradual, with Monday a transition day before above-normal temps become more likely. Monday also still looks mainly dry, but a series of shortwaves will be passing to our south afterwards. This will support a chance for mostly snow, late Monday night but especially Tuesday. Clouds and potential precip will hold temps back a bit still on Tuesday. Chances for precip is highest in the south. Sporadic chances for precip will return later in the week, as at least one piece of energy is likely to eject from the sw. This precip will be mostly liquid, though if it arrives overnight, perhaps freezing precip will be possible. But a lengthy period of above normal temps is clear main story of the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 High pressure will gradually build across the northern Michigan terminal area during the 18Z TAF valid time. However, cold northerly winds will produce lake effect clouds and light snow/flurries over parts of the area. Also, a passing disturbance to the south may enhance the snow risk slightly at KMBL. In any event, the building high pressure supports predominantly VFR conditions and gradually decreasing wind speeds through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...PBB