625 

FXUS63 KAPX 281740

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1240 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow later today and mainly tonight, mainly near and 

  south of M-72, near Whitefish Point, and Grand Traverse Bay.



- Much colder this weekend, low temps below zero for some.



- Temperatures moderate next week, active weather/precipitation

  chances returning to the region.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1107 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: 



Surface high pressure system will dive southeast through the day 

today across the Northern Plains - Upper Midwest. On the cusp 

of the low level temperature gradient will be a band of 

frontogenesis, one of which will situate across the Upper 

Midwest and the Great Lakes region, while troughing remains to 

the north across Canada. Most guidance points to this feature 

remaining near or just to the south of M-55, with the potential 

for a light snowfall for portions of northern lower Michigan

later today into tonight. Meanwhile, cold low level temps and 

northwest winds will result in some lake effect snow across the 

E UP, and additionally in the vicinity of the Leelanau 

Peninsula and Grand Traverse Bay. Could see a couple of inches 

of snow near Whitefish Point, and then near/south of M-72 as 

well later today and into portions of the overnight due to the 

frontogenetical forcing. Expect a general 1 to 2" in spots south

of M-55, with 1 to locally maybe near 3" in the lake effect 

zones from GTB and the Leelanau Peninsula through tonight. Could

be a little breezy in spots today as well early. 



Final piece of energy amongst this trough complex to the north 

swings through tonight into the early portions of Sunday, with sfc 

high pressure building in overhead. Cannot rule out a few snow 

showers across the eastern UP, but nothing significant. Little break 

in the action remains into Monday as heights begin to rise and more 

zonal flow takes over temporarily. Thus, temperatures will begin to 

rebound with 20s and 30s for highs on Monday. 



Short wave within the more west to east flow may aid in an area

of precipitation on Tuesday, although uncertainty remains in 

regards to the exact extent and type of precipitation. The bulk

of the precip will likely remain to the south associated with a

frontal boundary and moisture advection. GEFS and GEPS suggest

this as well, with light precip and the bulk of it to the south

whereas the EPS guidance (18Z) is a little more robust, but 

still the bulk of the precip to the south. So, at this juncture,

could be some minor wintry precip on Tuesday with temperatures 

hovering around freezing (few pieces of guidance show a wintry 

mix in the vicinity as well).



Active weather likely continues during the latter portions of next 

week with energy moving out of the Southwest and up into the OH 

Valley/Great Lakes Region. This time precipitation likely remain on 

the wet rather than white side as temperatures moderate well above 

freezing for most.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1236 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



High pressure will gradually build across the northern Michigan

terminal area during the 18Z TAF valid time. However, cold 

northerly winds will produce lake effect clouds and light 

snow/flurries over parts of the area. Also, a passing 

disturbance to the south may enhance the snow risk slightly at 

KMBL. In any event, the building high pressure supports 

predominantly VFR conditions and gradually decreasing wind 

speeds through the period.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JLD

AVIATION...PBB