578 FXUS63 KAPX 310746 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 246 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Long duration lake effect snow setup, occasionally boosted by passing clippers, continues to pile up snow into the northwest Lower and eastern Upper snowbelts through New Year's Day. - Snow chances persist through the weekend as additional clippers swing through, favoring the usual snowbelt locations. - Temperatures look to trend milder heading into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Lake effect snow showers will ring in the new year with us here in northern MI, though activity looks to taper slightly in the early morning hours as the initial wave lifts east. Lighter synoptic snow will continue across areas outside of the favored snowbelts, generally amounting to an inch or less, with some additional contribution possible where lake effect snow showers can bleed outward. Any lull in lighter snow will be brief as a more potent shortwave quickly follows on the heels of the departing system, reinvigorating snowfall coverage and intensity through the day. Lowe level winds gradually veer toward a more northwest direction, maintaining favorable fetch into the traditional snowbelt regions of northern Lower and eastern Upper and prolonging what will be as the previous forecaster said, a drawn-out yet impactful stretch of wintry weather right in time for the New Year. Forecast soundings continue to depict impressive low level lake induced instability with deep saturation, supporting efficient snow accumulations. Snows through the day and into the evening will allow already growing totals from last night to climb with an additional 4 to 8 inches, (with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches possible) across the typical snowbelt locations, with lighter accumulations of 2 to 4 inches elsewhere across northwest Lower and up to around an inch or two across remaining areas. Please see the latest Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory for additional information. Any slight winds shifts will influence where the highest totals ultimately occur. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 An active and wintry pattern remains firmly in place through the latter half of the week and into the weekend, with little indication of any prolonged break. Fast-moving shortwave disturbances and clipper-type systems continue to traverse the region within persistent northwest flow aloft, each providing periodic reinforcements to lake effect and lake enhanced snowfall. While none of these waves appear particularly strong on their own, several periods stand out for more organized snowfall potential as additional disturbances move through. Each system will have the ability to enhance snowfall, especially within the typical northwest flow snowbelts, while areas outside of those regions continue to see intermittent lighter accumulations. Temperatures through the long term remain on the colder side with daytime highs generally ranging from the teens to 20s. Thursday (New Year's Day)appears to be the coldest day of the period with temperatures struggling to get out of the teens. Some gradual moderation is suggested heading into the weekend, with temperature trending closer to seasonal normals by Sunday. Early next week guidance suggests a ridge attempting to make its way to the region... potentially leading to precipitation concerns if temperatures aloft warm enough. Something to continue to monitor in the coming forecast cycles. For now, guidance supports a continuation of mainly snow as we head into the first days of the new year across northern MI. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Lake effect/enhanced snow showers will continue through much of the period. Slight downtick in activity expected later tonight before a ramp up in snow shower coverage/intensity on Wednesday. TAF period will continue to be riddled with MVFR to low VFR CIGs for most, with lowered VSBYs within heavier snow showers. Winds will be breezy at times -- 25 to 30 knots during the day Wednesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016- 017-020-025-026-031-032-088-095-096-099. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ021-022- 027-028-086-087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ341-345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LSZ321-322. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MJG