388 FXUS63 KAPX 301712 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1212 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light lake effect snow showers will increase in intensity and coverage this afternoon and evening, producing accumulating snow through Wednesday. Highest accumulations are expected to be across northwest flow snowbelts of northwest Lower and eastern Upper. - Wintry pattern continues across the Great Lakes through the remainder of the week. - Slow moderation in temperatures heading into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 312 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Lingering lake effect snow showers continue early this morning within a well established northwest flow regime, though accumulations through the morning hours should remain limited to perhaps a few more inches. Attention turns to a fast moving mid- level disturbance sliding through the flow later today. As this wave approaches, a plume of deeper moisture spreads into Northern MI, with near-saturated conditions developing above the convective layer. While convective depths themselves do not increase appreciably, increasing omega within the dendritic growth zone and favorable seeder-feeder processes should allow lake driven snow showers to gradually become more organized through the afternoon. This should support a modest uptick in snowfall rates within favored northwest flow snowbelts, particularly across northwest Lower where a few inches of accumulation by evening appear possible. Outside of these areas, expect scattered lighter snow showers with limited impacts. Temperatures today will remain colder with highs generally in the upper teens to 20s. The late day wave exits quickly, but is followed closely by another disturbance arriving tonight into early Wednesday. During this time, convective cloud depths increase somewhat as additional mid level moisture overspreads the region. This setup favors more efficient seeder feeder processes and supports a transition toward more organized and robust lake effect snow. A gradually veering low level wind profile may also allow for some Lake Superior contribution into northern Lake MI, further enhancing snowfall potential. Several inches of new snow appear likely overnight into Wednesday, with the greatest accumulations favored once again across northwest Lower and eastern upper. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches, with localized amounts greater than 8 inches will be possible across the typical northwest flow snowbelts in northern Lower and eastern Upper. Other areas west of I-75 look to generally get between 2 to 5 inches with locations elsewhere receiving 1 to 3 inches. Please see the latest Winter Weather Advisory for more details. Lows tonight fall into the teens. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 312 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The overall pattern through the latter half of the week remains active, with strong northwest flow aloft supporting periodic passages of fast moving shortwave disturbances. None of these waves currently appear particularly strong on their own, though each will have the potential the enhance lake effect snow showers as the pass through the region. As a result, intermittent lake driven snow chances persist at times through the weekend, especially within the typical northwest flow snowbelts. Temperatures through the long term look to remain colder, with daytime highs generally ranging from the teens to 20s. Thursday look to be the coldest day with highs struggling to get out of the teens. Overnight lows will commonly fall into the single digits and teens. Some gradual moderation may begin heading into the weekend, with temperatures trending closer to seasonal normals Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Lake effect and enhanced snow showers will continue through much of the period. Slight downtick in activity possible tonight, then a ramp up again on Wednesday. Thus, TAF period will be riddled with MVFR to low VFR CIGs for most, with lowered VSBYs within heavier snow showers. Most terminals will be within the better potential for snow showers and VSBYs around or under 1 SM later this afternoon, into tonight, and then again on Wednesday. Winds will be breezy at times as well, up to 25 knots on average this afternoon, then 25 to 30 knots on Wednesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MIZ016- 020-025-026-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ021- 022-027-028-086-087-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...JLD