349 FXUS63 KAPX 300448 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1148 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter storm continues to depart tonight. - Colder with passing weak disturbances set to bring some accumulating lake snows mid-week. - Slow moderation heading into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 616 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Cleaning up some of the headlines that were expiring at 7pm. In the eastern UP, surface obs have been gradually improving vsbys over the last 1-2 hours. Continued improvement is expected, with weakening winds and less falling/blowing snow. We can replace the dying warning with an advisory there, matching MQT, into the early overnight. A few northern lower MI warning counties were also set to go down at 7pm. Alpena Co, now that the back edge of synoptic snow has exited, has seen considerable improvement. They have been switched to the advisory group, which goes down at 7 pm. Crawford and Missaukee Cos warnings were extended thru 06Z, to match the other still-warned counties. Missaukee in particular is still at the business end of the dominant band in nw lower MI. Again, winds will be gradually decreasing, allowing conditions to slowly improve. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Quite the impressive system impacting the region today. Sub 980mb surface low now well off to our east into western Quebec, with still deepening mid level parent lagging a bit behind across eastern Ontario. Combination of strong pressure gradient and rather intense cold air advection/deepening boundary layer helping drive some very impressive winds, with frequent gusts up and over 40 mph earlier this afternoon...with some topping 50. Deep dynamics and moisture plume steadily departing to our east, but a blossoming lake response is still delivering some pretty decent snow showers...especially in our snow belt locations. Combination of that snow and those gusty winds definitely resulting is some localized blizzard conditions/near whiteouts in those more open and exposed areas. Definitely do not recommend any unnecessary travel the remainder of this afternoon into early evening. System will continue to lose its grip on our weather tonight as it pinwheels further up into eastern Canada. Fast moving wave within strong northwest flow aloft set to arrive by later Tuesday, helping reinvigorate what should be some lingering lake-driven snows. Primary Forecast Concerns: Lingering impacts from winter storm tonight, with a transitioning to snow amounts from next wave arriving later Tuesday. Details: Still some significant travel impacts expected into this evening. Ongoing snows will continue to transition to a more pure lake effect variety this evening as synoptic moisture contribution is totally lost. Lake parameters not impressive at all, with very shallow convective cloud depths and very dry conditions above this convective layer. Simple persistence will perhaps bring an inch or two of additional snow...most this evening...in the north-northwest snow belts of northwest lower Michigan. However, while steadily decreasing, winds will remain gusty tonight. This will continue to produce some blowing and drifting snow in those more open areas. Looking at lows tonight mostly in the teens, with wind chill readings on either side of zero by a few degrees. Expect light lake snows to continue through Tuesday morning with minimal accumulations. Parameters begin to change heading into the afternoon as weak mid level disturbance and attendant plume of deeper moisture arrive. While convective depths don't really increase, seeder feeder processes from near saturated conditions above the convective layer and increasing omega in the dendritic growth zone should help lake snows to grow upscale. Again, nothing too significant, but could see a few inches by evening in those northwest flow snow belt locations. Just some scattered much lighter snow showers elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday mostly in the lower to middle 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 304 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A period of cold weather as persistent troughing dominates our weather through the rest of the work week. Troughing begins to abate some heading in the weekend, allowing temperatures to modify a bit. Cold temperatures and passing weak disturbances will again support some periodic chances for lake snows through the period. Primary Forecast Concerns: Main focus on more lake enhancement Tuesday night and Wednesday as yet another fast moving shortwave trough races across the region. Details: Tuesday afternoons clipper-type system looks to be quickly followed by another Tuesday night into Wednesday. Convective cloud depths do look to increase a bit during this period, with more seeder-feeder processes from mid level moisture. Could definitely be looking at a period of more organized and robust lake snows heading into Wednesday...especially with a more veered wind profile suggesting some Lake Superior contribution into northern Lake Michigan. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see several inches of new snow... heaviest into northwest lower Michigan. Evidence for more quick moving waves at various times for the rest of the period, although currently none of which look overly impressive. Of course, any passing waves will help with lake snows, so something to monitor as we round out the week into the weekend. Temperatures will run several degrees below normal Wednesday through Saturday, with highs in the teens to lower 20s (Thursday looks particularly cold, with widespread highs only in the teens). Some modification looks possible Sunday and Monday, with highs returning to more normal levels. Overnight lows in the single digits and teens through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 As low pressure continues to move away from northern MI, conditions are seeing some improvement. Snow/winds/BLSN are all improving...slowly. Sporadic IFR conditions are possible at CIU/PLN/TVC overnight. Otherwise MVFR will be most common for late tonight into midday Tuesday. Late Tuesday, another round of snow showers should break out, with IFR conditions returning to all sites but APN. Blustery nw winds continue tonight, though wind speeds will gradually decrease. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>018- 020>023-025>028-031>033-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086>088- 095>097. MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...JZ