923 

FXUS64 KAMA 280454

AFDAMA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

1054 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026



...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026



- Some chances for rain, mainly for the far eastern Panhandles

  starting Sunday evening and again on Tuesday. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Sunday night)

Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026



Dry conditions will continue throughout the majority of the

coming weekend. Main H250 jet streak across the northern CONUS

will provide large scale subsidence over the Panhandles going

through Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from

the mid 70s to lower 80s across the region under mostly clear

skies. Going into the second half of the weekend, a backdoor cold

front will move into the region from NE to SW across the

Panhandles. Some of the more aggressive numerical data sets

progresses the cold front quickly through the majority of the

Panhandles, including the Amarillo area. There are still some 

discrepancies between some of the latest guidance overall, but

based off thew latest NBM guidance, current high temperature

forecast will range between the upper 50s in the northeastern

Panhandles to lower 70s in the southern Texas Panhandle. If said

cold front moves through faster, some areas in the southern Texas

Panhandle could be about 10-15 degrees colder than the current

forecast. Latest short term guidance also shows a mid level

disturbance traverses the Panhandles. With the progression of the

front, along with the timing of the mid level disturbance by 

Sunday evening, a few showers and even a thunderstorm is possible

for the far southeast TX Panhandle. Chances are around 20 percent,

as the better moisture transport axis is south and east of the

Texas Panhandle, but still an area to watch closely for Sunday. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday through next Friday)

Issued at 1009 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026



A somewhat active central US pattern for disturbances will set up

going into next week. Latest global model guidance continues to

decrease rain chances going into mid week. If the current track of

the main low pressure system mid week holds, most of the rain

chances will be well north and east of the region. The only

notable chances for any precipitation may occur the second half of

Tuesday ahead of the main low pressure system (20-30% rain

chances). A series of cold fronts will traverse the region, but

overall temperatures will still range from near to above average

as we go into early March.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1005 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with relatively light

winds shifting from NNW to Easterly overnight into Saturday. Some

high based clouds are expected to move into the area around 2Z on

Sunday, but no flight rule changes expected. 



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

OK...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...29

LONG TERM....29

AVIATION...23