181 FXUS61 KALY 291826 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 226 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded the Extreme Heat Watch Wednesday afternoon through Friday to include the rest of the Capital District, Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Helderbergs, southeast Catskills, upper Hudson Valley, Taconics in NY, Bennington and eastern Windham County in VT, southern Berkshires, and Northern Litchfield Hills. Confidence has increased in these area reaching close to or exceeding a heat index of 105 during the peak afternoon heating hours. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s will not provide much relief Wednesday night and Thursday night. Upgrade to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday into Tuesday night in eastern NY and southern VT from around Albany and I-90 northward. Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) maintained farther south. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses, especially from Wednesday through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories. 2) There will be the potential for thunderstorms to affect parts of the region each day this week beginning Tuesday. Confidence is low regarding coverage and placement of storms, but some may be strong to severe on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Anomalously strong heat dome/upper level ridge (500 mb heights of 594-597 dam) is forecast build east Tuesday through Friday, encompassing much of the eastern third of the CONUS. The core of the ridge axis will be just south of our area, but the expansive scope of the ridge along with an anomalously warm airmass (850mb temperature anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV) and with humid conditions (dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s) will result in extreme heat conditions for many lower elevations. Actual max temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Wed an mid 90s to lower 100s Thu and Fri combined with the high dewpoints looks to result in heat index (feels-like temperatures) of 100 to 110 widespread in lower elevations. The HeatRisk categories will be major (level 3 of 4) to extreme (level 4 of 4) across the area. Temperatures and humidity levels will be on the rise Tue (upper 80s to lower 90s), but expected to fall just short of Heat Advisory criteria with max heat indices of 90-94F in most valley locations. There was enough confidence to expand the Extreme Heat Watch to include most of the rest of the area excluding some higher terrain locations. Even these high elevations areas will likely eventually need a Heat Advisory, at least for Wed and possibly Thu/Fri. Will address later over the next day or two once confidence increases. There will be a compounding effect each day, as there will not be much relief at night during this time, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s. Therefore the Extreme Heat Watch will stretch through the entire period from Wed P.M. through Fri P.M. While the heat index eases slightly on Sat (July 4th), forecast max values in the mid 90s to lower 100s in lower elevations would still eventually necessitate the issuance of additional Heat Advisories. A gradual decrease in the temperatures/humidity levels could begin to occur by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur starting Tue and lasting into Wed, as the advection of significant moisture and heat will result in an increasingly unstable air mass. Multiple disturbances spilling over the top of the upper level ridge axis and propagating SE will result in chances for convection, although there is low confidence in the timing, placement and coverage of storms. The air mass will be fairly volatile, with guidance indicating a remnant EML over the area Tue evening/night with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7- 8degC/Km. Should convection develop, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms would occur, with large hail and damaging winds gusts the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms from around Albany and I-90 northward in NT and into S. VT Tue into Tue night, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of area. On Wed, the environment may be a bit more capped as the ridge axis shift farther east, but there is still the threat of some convection along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. With high heat/humidity building, SBCAPE could exceed 3000 J/Kg, with 20-30 kt of 0-6 km shear so there continues to be the potential for severe storms. With large magnitude of CAPE, and at least moderate shear, threats for both large hail and damaging winds exist. CAMs continue to struggle with agreement on the timing and placement of convection. Will maintain mainly chance PoPs for showers/T-storms Tue and Wed. SPC continues to have most of our region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) outlook for Wed, which seems reasonable given the uncertainty, but also favorable environment. There should be more of a cap with the ridge axis just to our south on Thu, so will not mention any storm chances that day. Additional convection possible Fri and especially into the July 4th holiday weekend as the ridge aloft starts to become flatter while a surface front potentially approaches from the north. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18z/Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire TAF period outside of some patchy fog/mist possible again tonight at KGFL and KPSF. Confidence is highest at KPSF where vsbys/cigs could be lowered to IFR/LIFR if fog does indeed develop. Otherwise, skies will be few/scattered with passing fair weather cumulus and cirrus with coverage increasing towards the end of the TAF period. Winds this afternoon generally range from the northwest/north 4-6 kt before becoming calm overnight. Winds then become south/southwesterly 4-6 kt by mid morning tomorrow as the warm front approaches. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Current Record High Temperatures July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933) July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966) July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966) Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083- 084. MA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for MAZ025. VT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for VTZ013-015. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...53 CLIMATE...33