169 FXUS61 KALY 290552 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 152 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted temps slightly for overnight, allowing for slightly cooler temps in the Adirondacks based on the expected radiational cooling. Some patchy fog also added for southern areas where more low level moisture is available. With the high confidence for the dangerous heat and humidity, Extreme Heat Watch issued for the mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County for Wednesday through Friday. More of the area may be needed in a Watch or Advisory over the next few days. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses, especially from Wednesday through Friday, when HeatRisk impacts may reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories. 2) There will be the potential for thunderstorms to impact the region beginning on Tuesday, although the exact coverage and intensity of thunderstorms is still uncertain at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A large upper level ridge will be setting up over the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes for Monday. It will be slowly sliding eastward through the week, with the ridge axis getting close to the area by Thursday, but will be getting flattened and squashed from the north by Friday into the weekend thanks to disturbances sliding within the flow. Although the core of the upper level ridge (around 596 dm heights at 500 hpa) will be off to the south, 850 hpa temps will be very warm across the region. Similar to yesterday, models and ensembles continue to show 850 hpa temps reaching around 20-22 C across our by Wednesday and Thursday, with the warmest temps across southern area. There should be sunshine and heating for temps to reach the middle 90s for valley areas on Wednesday into Thursday. Some upper 90s can't be ruled out, especially in the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints will be very muggy into the 70s for many areas. There is some uncertainty regarding how clouds and possible convection may impact temps, but the NBM has been fairly consistent on these impactful temps for several days now. Heat index (feels- like temperatures) may exceed 100 in valley areas, with some top values getting close to 110 in the mid Hudson Valley. Based on the latest values in the forecast, have gone with an Extreme Heat Watch for the Eastern Ulster, Dutchess and southern Litchfield Counties for Wednesday morning through Friday evening. NWS Heat Risk has most of the area in the "Major" Category (level 3 of 4), but some pockets of "Extreme" (level 4 of 4) also appears for some valley areas on Thursday and also on Friday, due to the cumulative effects of several days of extreme heat with little relief during the overnight hours. This type of heat will result in impacts to anyone without cooling/hydration, as well as impacts for health systems and industries. Some infrastructure impacts cannot be ruled out due to the multi-day power demands. With models suggesting heights lowering somewhat by next weekend, the heat may not be quite as extreme for the 4th of July and Sunday. Still, guidance continues to suggest it looks above normal and continued muggy, so some heat impacts could still be a concern even into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... Models continue to indicate the potential for convection with a surface warm front for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, mainly for northern areas. SPC didn't outlook our area with the early morning Day 3 Outlook, but did indicate that it's a possibility in future outlooks, as it will ultimately depend on the exact timing of convection dropping southeast out of Canada. Although the most CAPE will be west of the area, there should be enough instability available by late Tuesday for convection. The highest shear may be just north of the area, but there may be enough overlap for some severe threat on Tuesday, although it will depend on the exact timing. Additional storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday during the afternoon and evening hours, although exact coverage will depend on the strength of the ridge axis. At this point, storms may just be isolated in coverage due to the strong ridge and the better coverage may be as it starts to break down by Friday or Saturday. Some convection may ride around the ridge for late this week, so northern and eastern areas could be more susceptible for storms on these days, but this is still uncertain as well. Most ML/AI severe guidance continues to indicate the potential for impactful storms in our area through the week, so this will be something to monitor, but a lot of uncertainty remains this far our. For now, will go with slight chc to chc POPs for most days and will continue to monitor convective trends. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z Tuesday...Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions as of 1:50 AM EDT, although current satellite imagery shows some fog and low stratus expanding into the Berkshires and Mid Hudson Valley. Highest confidence for fog and IFR to lIFR vsbys/cigs early this morning is at PSF. Confidence is quite a bit lower for POU, but will keep the mention of fog in from previous TAFs. Have also added a couple hours of IFR vsbys and mist at GFL early this morning with dew point depressions already near 0. Timing for fog/mist looks to be through around 11z, and after that conditions should improve back to VFR through the remainder of the TAF period with just a few passing mid or high clouds. Winds will be light and variable through mid to late morning, increasing to around 4-7 kt from the N/NE at ALB/GFL and N/NW at POU/PSF through around sunset before becoming light and variable again. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Current Record High Temperatures July 1: Albany: 99 (1913) Glens Falls: 100 (1913) Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933) July 2: Albany: 98 (1966, 1901) Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901) Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966) July 3: Albany: 102 (1911) Glens Falls: 101 (1911) Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966) Last 100-Degree Day: Albany: September 3, 1953 Glens Falls: July 10, 1988 Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for CTZ013. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for NYZ052-053-059-060-064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35 CLIMATE...33