524 FXUS61 KALY 280601 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 101 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Light snow continues to be expected for Saturday night into Sunday. Have leaned higher than NBM POPs for this time period and leaned on the higher end of the blended guidance for QPF/snowfall as well. Wintry precip still expected next week from late Tuesday onward through the late week. Have kept just rain or snow in the forecast for now, but mixed precip is possible as well based on possible temp profiles. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A brief warmup is expected on Saturday, followed by a cold front passage and a return to well below normal temperatures again Sunday into early next week. Some light snow is expected late Saturday night into Sunday with this transition to colder weather. 2) Monitoring a potential storm system that could bring some accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix to at least parts of the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday along with an additional system late next week. Forecast confidence remains low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... With a southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front, temps will be much milder on Saturday compared to recent days. Valley areas should reach the mid to upper 40s, which will likely be the mildest day in the area since mid January. A cold front will be passing through the area during the late morning into the afternoon hours. There may be a few light rain or snow showers along this boundary, mainly for the Adirondacks, but most areas will stay dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky as the front crosses from west to east. Winds will switch to the west to northwest and colder air will start to arrive into the region during evening hours. All areas should be falling below freezing by midnight or so. As the front settled southward, a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the boundary and lift northeast. Moisture is limited over the area, but an area of light snow looks to develop and move west to east across the region for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. It may linger into early Sunday afternoon for eastern areas. Total QPF is fairly marginal, although models runs have slightly increase lately. Most areas will see a coating to an inch or so, although some localized totals up to 2 inches is possible (especially high terrain and southern areas). NBM shows a 20-40% chance of 1" amd 10-30% chance for 2", although our forecast slightly leans a little more on the wetter side of the guidance accounting for some of the recent trends. Still, amounts look to be sub- advisory, although some locally slick travel is expected on Sunday morning, especially for high terrain areas and untreated surfaces. Behind this system, it looks rather cold for Sunday night through Tuesday. A large 1040 hpa will build towards the area on Sunday night into Monday and pass overhead on Monday night before departing on Tuesday. 850 hpa temps will be as low as -15 to -20 C at 850 hpa within the core of the cold air aloft. Temps look to fall into the single digits for the Capital Region and Hudson Valley on Sunday night, with below zero readings over the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. After highs only in the teens and 20s on Monday, lows will once again fall close to zero or the single digits on Monday night for many areas. Tuesday will still be chilly, but will start to see some moderation. KEY MESSAGE 2... The weather will be unsettled for Tuesday through the late week as a series of storm systems impacts the region. As a storm system lifts northward towards the area, some light precip is expected late Tuesday through early Wednesday along an advancing warm front. Initially, it will be cold enough for snow, although precip will change to wintry mix and/or rain, especially for southern areas, as warmer air works its way into the region. Still, enough wintry precip for slippery travel is possible, especially for northern areas. After a break brief for Wednesday afternoon and evening, another system is expected for Thursday into Friday. Again, northern areas may be see some snow or mixed precip, although the boundary layer may be warmer to start with this event, so snow or mixed precip may be more limited. The exact thermal profiles and where the boundary sets up is still uncertain, so some changes are expected to the forecast, but the trend for unsettled weather and moderating temps seems to be suggested by most model guidance for this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...SKC conditions continue at all terminals at the start of this TAF cycle with the latest high res guidance showing VFR conditions continuing through 12 UTC so updated TAFs to remove IFR mention tonight. Latest satellite imagery shows our disturbance upstream tracking through Michigan and as its warm front lifts through late this morning, low and mid-level clouds look to overspread the terminals. Given overall weak forcing and moisture, only show PROB30 groups for MVFR vis from rain/snow showers at GFL as showers track overspread mainly from 15 - 18 UTC. Then, we should have a brief break for dry weather albeit low and mid-level clouds lingering overhead before its associated cold front marches eastward late this afternoon. Included another PROB30 group at PSF for showers 21 to 00 UTC and MVFR cigs as this boundary tracks eastward. Then, after this boundary exits into New England by 00 UTC/01, still expecting a quick trend back to VFR at all terminals. Light and variable winds at GFL and POU tonight with southeasterly winds remaining near 5-9 kt at ALB. We continue to message LLWS developing at GFL, ALB and PSF by 10-12 UTC as winds at 2000ft increase to 35-40kts. Then, southeasterly winds increase at all terminals by 14-15 UTC with sustained winds 5-10kts and gusts up to 15-20kts, likely ending the LLWS potential. Winds then shift to the west-southwest by 20-22 UTC at all terminals in the wake of our cold front with sustained winds becoming breezy for a short period reaching 8-12kts and gusts up to 15kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...31