735 FXUS61 KALY 310613 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 113 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased chances for snow/snow showers across region for tonight, and winds/wind gusts for Thursday associated with and behind clipper system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake effect snow will continue into today with main band lifting northward into SW Adirondacks. Additional lake effect snow redevelops tonight across SW Adirondacks and then shifts southward with decreasing inland extent Thursday morning. 3. Clipper system will bring a widespread light snowfall tonight, along with heavier snow showers/snow squalls later tonight along system's cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lake effect snowband currently settling back southward near/just north of I-90 and extending into Capital Region and southern VT/northern Berkshires. Occasional flare-ups within the band have been producing estimated snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour, although latest trends suggest intensity may be weakening again. As winds gradually back more into the west, the band should begin to gradually lift/shift back northward around or shortly after daybreak, eventually lifting into central/northern Herkimer County later this morning and afternoon. The eastern extent may still affect portions of the Mohawk Valley through mid morning, occasionally extending east into Saratoga/Washington Counties/Warren Cos and southern VT. By this afternoon, the band should mainly be in northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. Snowfall intensity will vary, but could still reach 1-2"/hour at times through mid morning across south central Herkimer Co, and up to an inch/hour farther east into the Mohawk Valley, and perhaps briefly 0.5-1"/hour as far east as Saratoga/Washington/SE Warren Cos and southern VT. The snowband may eventually become disrupted this evening, before renewed lake effect snow redevelops later tonight and shifts southward in the wake of a cold front. This will bring bursts of moderate/heavy snow to northern Herkimer/western Hamilton Counties tonight, shifting into southern Herkimer County and portions of the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County after midnight into Thursday morning. Additional snowfall amounts primarily from lake effect snow of 3-6" will be possible across northern Herkimer/western Hamilton County through today, then perhaps an additional 1-3" tonight. Farther south and east, an additional 1-3 inches is expected mainly this morning, then another 1-3" possible late tonight into Thursday morning across southern Herkimer County. KEY MESSAGE 2... Clipper system will approach from northwest tonight in association with strong shortwave aloft. Increasing mid level advection should allow an area of light snow to overspread region from NW to SE this evening, most likely between 7 and 10 PM, with periods of snow then transitioning to snow showers later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. As the system's cold front tracks eastward after midnight, strong dynamical forcing/F-Gen and shallow instability looks to increase snow squall potential along the cold front. This will likely create at least some brief areas of significantly reduced visibility and heavy snow as they track through. As far as additional snowfall amounts, many areas look to receive 1-2 inches for areas north of I-90, as well as upslope areas of NW CT, western MA and southern VT, with up to 3 inches possible across some higher terrain areas. However, locally higher amounts will be possible across higher terrain in southern VT, where pockets of 3-6" could occur. For most areas south of I-90, generally an inch or less is expected (except higher across NW CT, especially northern Litchfield County). Areas of slippery travel can be expected overnight, especially given such cold ground surface temperatures prior to, and during the snowfall for tonight. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A narrow band of lake effect snow is moving through the Mohawk Valley into the Greater Capital District region, bringing brief reduced visibilities in falling snow to less than 2 miles which will impact KALB through at least 7z. The band should weaken and move further south by 7z. Confidence is too low to include mention of this band of snow for KPSF as it is likely to weaken before reaching the terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds continue to be variable and breezy at the start of the TAF period, but should continue to decrease this morning to less than 15 knots. Winds become southerly for this afternoon into the end of the TAF period ranging between 5 and 10 knots. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ039- 040-047-082. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...05