730 FXUS61 KALY 302332 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 632 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... With winds diminishing, have cancelled Wind Advisory a little early across the region. Otherwise, lake effect snow will continue through Wednesday bringing the highest snowfall amounts to the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected through the remainder of this afternoon before diminishing tonight. 2. Lake effect snow will continue into Wednesday with the highest accumulations across the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. 3. Clipper system will bring a widespread light snowfall Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong pressure gradient remains in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will continue through this afternoon which will also lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. The pressure gradient begins to relax tonight allowing for winds to gradually subside. Wind gusts will only top out around 20-25 mph Wednesday through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold, cyclonic flow in the wake of this low will lead to continued lake effect snow through Wednesday. A very thin but intense band of snow off Lake Ontario is beginning to lift northward and will set up within the NY Thruway corridor from Herkimer to Albany into this evening before slowly lifting north of the Thruway overnight. Fragments of this band will extend across the Northway as well as the Berkshires and southern Vermont through tonight. The band will retreat farther northward into northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties on Wednesday as the flow backs more west-southwesterly ahead of an approaching clipper system. Within these bands, snowfall rates could reach 0.50 to 1.00 inches per hour at times and greatly reduce visibility to one half of a mile or less. Snowfall totals remain in the 6-12 inch range for portions of Herkimer County and 3-6 inches for Hamilton, Fulton and Montgomery counties. If the band sits over one location across the Capital District into Berkshire County and southern Vermont for a period of time, snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches can occur. Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect into Wednesday or Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGE 3... Lake effect snow will become more disrupted later Wednesday as a clipper system crosses the area Wednesday night. The west- southwesterly flow ahead of this clipper is what is causing the lake effect band to lift northward into northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties on Wednesday. This clipper will bring a widespread light accumulating snowfall to the area Wednesday night with amounts generally a coating to 2 inches. This clipper could bring some localized bursts of heavier snow or even a snow squall as it passes through as well. This clipper will disrupt the lake effect response for a time on Thursday, but more organized lake effect snow showers are likely to redevelop by Thursday night and continue into next weekend bringing additional accumulations to parts of the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Bands of lake effect snow will continue to impact parts of the region through tonight. The main band will bring some IFR conditions to KALB and KPSF over the next few hours, with visibility as low as 3/4SM at times over the next hour or two. KGFL and KPOU won't see any lake effect snowfall this evening, keeping VFR at those sites with bkn cigs around 4-6 kft. Towards midnight, the band will be shifting northward, so KALB/KPSF both should see improving conditions. Flying conditions will probably return to VFR at both sites, but cannot totally rule out some MVFR cigs hanging around for a little bit for the late night hours. On Wednesday, flying conditions should be VFR for all sites through the day. A few flurries are possible near KGFL in the morning, but the best lake effect snow showers will remain west of the region. Some additional snow showers are possible late in the day with brief MVFR/IFR conditions but this will likely be after 00z Thursday. Otherwise, sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft will stay in place through the day. Winds are starting to diminish for most sites, although KPSF is still seeing breezy conditions. Most sites will see west- southwest winds around 5-10 kts through the overnight, although KPSF will see westerly winds around 10 kts with some gusts 20-25 kts, especially for the first half of the overnight. On Wednesday, winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 kts for all sites. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHSN. New Years Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039- 040-047-082. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27/33 AVIATION...27