438 FXUS61 KAKQ 310736 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 236 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected today. Cool and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 235 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - A 1-3 hour period of very light snow is possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore between 4-8 AM. There is an outside chance of a couple tenths of an inch of snow, which could cause slick spots with temperatures in the 20s. - Dry and a bit breezy with SW winds gusting to 20 mph today. Early morning wx analysis shows strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft in Quebec with high pressure over the southern Plains/western Gulf coast. Our area continues to be in WNW flow aloft on the SW side of the upper low in Canada. It is cold with temps generally in the 20s to lower 30s, although mid to high level clouds have been on the increase in advance of a weak shortwave in the flow aloft. Radar mosaic shows some very light echoes across central VA and the Piedmont, but none of this is reaching the ground right now as low- levels are very dry. That shortwave crosses the area later this morning, and recent runs of the HRRR and other 00z guidance (including both CAMs and global models) indicates that we could see a period of very light snow roughly from Caroline County to the northern neck to part of the MD Eastern Shore between 4 and 8 AM this morning. While confidence is still low that any precip will reach the ground given the dry low levels/westerly LLVL flow, there is a possibility of a light accumulation of snow on the order of a couple tenths of an inch in these areas. If this does occur, some roads (especially bridges and secondary roads) could become slick given temps in the 20s...so will continue to monitor and issue an SPS if needed. Otherwise, skies clear out later today with highs in the lower-mid 40s. SW winds could gust to ~20 mph today across much of the area. Although forecast wind speeds and RH values do not meet fire danger statement criteria, will coordinate with NCFS about a possible SPS later this morning for NE NC as per collaboration with surrounding offices. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Below average temperatures continue through Thursday night as a dry cold front crosses the area. - A light snow shower can't be ruled out across E/NE portions of the area Thursday morning. The large upper trough over eastern Canada remains in place through the end of the work week, with our area remaining in WNW-NW flow aloft. Cool tonight with lows in the upper 20s-lower 30s in most areas. A reinforcing dry cold front drops through the area between 4- 10 AM Thursday morning. Can't rule out a brief light snow shower with the FROPA, especially in E/NE portions of the FA. Have added slight chc PoPs to account for this but no accums/impacts are expected with temps likely rising a few degrees above freezing before any precip arrives. Highs on Thurs will be in the mid to upper 30s across the N and low to mid 40s along and S of I-64. Lows in the low-mid 20s return Thurs night with some of typical colder spots perhaps seeing the upper teens. Dry and seasonable on Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Forecast highs are in the mid 40s-lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM EST Wednesday... Key Message: - Near to below average temperatures and dry weather is expected through the bulk of the extended period. The upper trough remains in place through the weekend, though it becomes a bit less amplified by Sunday. Looks to be mostly dry through the period under the continued NW flow. However, still monitoring the potential for a period of light precip on Saturday/Saturday evening as a southern stream low pressure system tracks from the Deep South to the Carolinas. The 00z/31 guidance has trended northward and the deterministic models have ~0.10" of precip across southern portions of the FA, with a few hundredths at best north of I-64. This would mainly be rain, although some light snow may mix in across the central VA Piedmont if precip makes it that far north (which is highly uncertain). Cool/dry wx prevails from Sun- early next week as high pressure builds back into the area. Highs Fri-Sun will be pretty similar each day. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal averages through the period with a moderating trend possible by Tue/Wed as sfc high pressure moves offshore and the flow aloft flattens out some. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Wednesday... VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Mid level clouds increase in coverage during the next few hours before moving offshore by 14-16z. CIGs remain VFR (5000-10000 ft). There is a slight chance of light snow at SBY between 10-13z, but confidence is low. However, added a PROB30 group to account for this and will amend as needed. If it does snow, VSBYs could drop to 2-3SM for a little bit. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected after mid morning. Winds become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later today. VFR tonight with increasing mid level clouds ahead of a cold front. Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week. Some hi-res model guidance shows the potential for a line of brief snow showers or flurries moving from NW to SE early Thu morning. However, confidence remains very low. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions prevail throughout the majority of the day with SW winds. - SCAs have been issued for all waters starting tonight and lasting through the day Thursday. Morning weather analysis shows high pressure moving off the coast of Texas and a strong low over far northern Canada. The pressure gradient from these two systems have weakened through the night/early morning, thus allowing the winds to lighten out of the NNW. Recent mornings observations are showing wind speeds generally between 10 to 15 kt with a gusts or two nearing 20kt but not enough to have SCA. Seas continue to behave as wave heights are between 1-2 ft across the bay and 3-4ft across the ocean. Through the day winds will shift out of the SW as a weak system passes to the north of the region. Winds are expected to remain around 10 to 15 kt through most of the day with an occasional gusts upwards of 20 kt. Local winds probs continue to show ~50 percent of wind gusts greater than 18 kt across the bay from this morning into the afternoon. With these low probs and having SW winds there is not enough confidence to have a SCA for the bay for late this morning and through the afternoon as conditions will be marginal. However, by this evening as the cold front from the disturbance to the north approaches the region the pressure gradient will tighten and winds will begin to increase bringing widespread SCA conditions across all the waters. Winds will increase out of the SW initially tonight with sustained winds between 15 to 20 kt and gusts upwards of 25 kt. Then by late tonight/early Thursday morning when the front pushes through colder and drier air will entrain the area and with strong mixing will produce gusts upwards of 30 kt. Throughout the day Thursday winds will decrease as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure moves over the area. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay generally average 1-2 ft, but likely will increase to 2-4 ft Wednesday night into Thursday. While the offshore wind direction will prevent seas from increasing too much, most guidance shows 3-5 ft during this time, highest 10+ nm offshore. With high enough confidence in the forecast, SCA advisories have been issued for all waters starting this evening and lasting through the day Thursday. Benign marine conditions return through Friday and early Saturday with possible elevated marine conditions making a return to the area late Saturday as a weak system passes south of the area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...AC/ERI LONG TERM...AC/ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...HET/SW