790 FXUS61 KAKQ 301928 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 228 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected today. Cool and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday... Key Message: - Less wind overnight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Afternoon sfc analysis indicates strong low pressure near Nova Scotia and high pressure over the south-central CONUS. The flow aloft has a deep trough over the eastern half of the CONUS with its axis along the east coast. A chilly airmass is in place locally behind yesterday's cold front. Early afternoon temps are still in the mid to upper 30s for the vast majority of the FA. So far, only ECG has hit 40. Breezy conditions with gusts of 20-30mph are keeping wind chills closer to freezing. The good news is that it is at least sunny. Of course the upper Eastern Shore is the exception where skies are mostly cloudy. A disturbance passes through the flow aloft overnight, leading to an increase in cloud cover, particularly across the NW. Winds will diminish after sunset, but will not drop out entirely. Despite less than ideal radiational cooling conditions, temps will still be able to drop into the mid 20s for most locations, upper 20s immediately along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday... Key Message: - Below average temperatures continue through Thursday night as a dry cold front crosses the area. The Mid-Atlantic remains sandwiched between high pressure to the south and low pressure well to the N on Wednesday. The UL trough remains in place as well. Not quite as cold, but still on the chilly side with highs generally in the mid 40s with a breeze strong enough to keep wind chills in the 30s for most of the day. Lows Wed night are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the far north and low 30s elsewhere. A reinforcing dry cold front drops through the area early Thursday morning. Couldn't rule out a stray flurry with the front, but any sort of precip looks unlikely at this point. Highs on Thurs will be in the mid to upper 30s across the N and low to mid 40s along and S of I-64. Lows in the low-mid 20s return Thurs night with some of typical colder spots perhaps seeing the upper teens. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday... Key Message: - Near to below average temperatures and dry weather is expected through the bulk of the extended period. The upper trough remains in place through the weekend, though it becomes a bit less amplified by Sunday. Looks to be mostly dry through the period under the continued NW flow. Rain chances for Saturday have decreased yet again as the latest guidance shows low pressure and associated precip suppressed well to the S. Was not quite ready to wipe out rain chances entirely, so maintained a slight chance across NE NC Sat. Highs Fri-Sun will be pretty similar each day. Forecasting highs ranging from around 40 in the far north to around 50 in the far south. Temps could moderate a bit early next week, but uncertainty is higher given differences between the global models. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/30 TAF period. Starting out the period with clear skies with the exception of SBY, which is under BKN. Expecting increasing clouds overnight, especially at RIC/SBY, as a disturbance passes through the flow aloft. Mostly to partly cloudy skies expected tomorrow. W winds will continue to gust to ~20kt through the rest of the afternoon then subsiding after sunset. Winds turn to the SW tomorrow at 10kt with gusts around 15kt. Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Gale warnings remain in effect for the northern two ocean zones. While the rest of the waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories. - Winds generally diminish while remaining offshore for the remainder of the week. A brief period of SCA is possible Wednesday night, as another weak cold front drops across the waters. Morning weather analysis shows a sub 980mb low over northern Maine and a 1036mb high over the southern Plains. With a strong pressure gradient from these two systems and drier and colder air entering the area is allowing winds to remain between 20 to 25 kt out of the NW with gusts upwards of 30 kt with some occasional gusts up to 35 kt primarily across the northern two ocean zones. The overall wind speeds have lowered through the night and the widespread Gale warnings have been able to be replaced by SCA. Primarily across the bay and 3 southern ocean zones where winds are not reaching criteria. These Small Crafts are in effect from now until late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Across the northern ocean zones Gale warnings remain in effect through this morning as there are some occasional gusts upwards of 35kt. Trends will continue to be monitored through the rest of the morning to see if a transition to SCA is needed. Seas continue to remain elevated with 3 to 4 ft seas across the bay and 5 to 7 ft seas across the ocean. Through the rest of the morning and through most of the day winds will continue to remain elevated but switch to more WNW with wind speeds between 20 to 25 kt and gusts upwards of 30kt. By tonight/early Wednesday morning all SCA that are in effect will drop as the pressure gradient slacks and winds lighten and switch to more SSW with sustained winds around 15 kt and an isolated gust upwards of 20 kt. Seas will also lower tonight with waves between 2 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4ft across the ocean. Through the middle of the week there will be multiple chances of SCA conditions. The pressure gradient tightens ahead of the back door cold front on Wednesday that could bring SCA primarily across the bay. Local wind probs have risen slightly however typically with SW winds they tend to under perform in the cool season due to the much cooler water temperatures. The overall next best chance of widespread SCA conditions comes Thursday behind the front as colder and direr air enters the area. Friday/This Weekend: Sub-SCA flow backs to the SSW Friday and Saturday ~10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1- 2 ft. Another round of SCA is possible Sat night into early Monday, as low pressure develops along the stalled front to the south and crosses S/SE of the local area, backing winds around to the NNW over the weekend. Wind probabilities have introduced some low-end probabilities during this period that will need monitoring in the coming days, as well as our next chance for rain showers next weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...AC SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...AC MARINE...HET