244 FXUS61 KAKQ 300518 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1218 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the area today bringing isolated to scattered showers moving from northwest to southeast. Breezy conditions today and tomorrow, followed by dry and much colder conditions through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1005 PM EST Monday... Key Message: - Wind chills in the upper teens to around 20F are expected late tonight into Tuesday morning. Evening sfc analysis indicated a strong cold front now SE of the local area with much drier and cooler weather arriving behind the front. Skies continue to clear rapidly with the only clouds as of 640 PM around far SE VA/NE NC. Even these clouds will quickly move offshore over the next couple of hours with clear skies prevailing through the rest of the night. W/WNW winds have overperformed inland with gusts above 40 mph noted at several locations. However, with the loss of diurnal heating, winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight with 5-10 kt winds inland expected by late tonight into early Tue morning. CAA brings in chilly overnight temps with lows in the low-mid 20s across the Piedmont and upper 20s to lower 30s across far E VA, NE NC, and the Eastern Shore. The Piedmont has the best chance for winds to decouple, which could allow for lows locally in the lower 20s. However, given stronger winds along the coast and across the Eastern Shore, have increased temps overnight, with mixing likely keeping temps elevated above what most model guidance shows. Norfolk may not even drop below freezing tonight. The lowest confidence in temps is Richmond where temps could remain in the upper 20s for lows if winds remain elevated or drop into the mid 20s if winds decouple. In any case, wind chills will be in the upper teens to around 20F across the area by Tue morning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Breezy and cooler Tuesday and below average temperatures through mid week. Much cooler Tues as cold, dry air moves in under an UL trough that sets up over the Eastern CONUS. Temps will struggle to make it past 40F tomorrow and breezy conditions keep wind chills in the 20s for most of the day. The good news is that it will at least be sunny. Another chilly night Tues night with lows in the mid to upper 20s. The UL trough remains in place over the East Coast through at least mid-week. Not quite as cold Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 40s but still a bit breezy keeping wind chills mostly in the 30s. Sunny for most of the day, then increasing cloud cover from the NW in the afternoon. Lows Wed night int the mid-upper 20s across the N and low 30s S of I-64. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Monday... Key Message: - Near to below average temperatures and dry weather through the end of the week. A reinforcing dry cold front drops through the area early Thurs. Highs on Thurs range from the mid 30s across the far north to near 50 in the far south. The secondary shot of cold air combined with radiational cooling should drop temps in the low-mid 20s with the typical colder, rural spots perhaps dropping into the teens. The UL trough becomes less amplified toward the end of the week. Note quite as cold Friday. Forecast highs are between the low 40s in the far north to the low 50s in the south. Some uncertainty heading into the weekend with the potential for a low developing to the south and pushing NE offshore. There is still some spread across the global models regarding location of the low and precip associated with it, but the 12z suite keeps most of the precip south of the local area. Will stick with NBM guidance for now, which yields mainly Chnc PoPs across the entire FA. Drying out again Sunday with high pressure returning. Temps generally in the 40s both days. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday... Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF period. Gusty WNW winds will persist today at all of the terminals. Wind speeds will average 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt before diminishing to ~10 kt tonight. Winds will be slightly stronger at SBY where gusts to 25-30 kt are possible. Skies will be clear through the day with SCT-BKN clouds around 10-12kft AGL potentially moving into RIC/SBY tonight. Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid-late week. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings go into effect this afternoon through late tonight/Tuesday morning over the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Coastal Waters. SCAs remain in effect until Tuesday afternoon for the rivers and Currituck Sound. - SCA's likely replace Gales over the Bay and Coastal waters Tuesday, and will likely persist through Tue night as gusty W-NW winds continue. - Winds generally diminish while remaining offshore for the remainder of the week. A brief period of SCA is possible Wednesday night, as another weak cold front drops across the waters. Through Tonight: SCA ongoing across the waters this afternoon, on a gusty SSW breeze. Winds of 20-25 kt are common across the waters early this afternoon, with gusts to near Gale in the lower bay and northern coastal waters. Strong trailing cold front is crossing the waters as of this writing, and will cross offshore by around or just after sunset. Gale Warnings go into effect at 20z/3pm EST over the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic coastal waters and 23z/6pm over ANZ658 south of the NC/VA border. Winds veer around to the W-NW in strong cold air advection post-frontal, which will maintain gusts to 30-40 kt this evening into the overnight hours, with highest winds over the Ches Bay and coastal waters. E VA rivers and the Currituck Sound remain in SCA, but could see a few gusts to Gale Force early this evening, as the best CAA crosses the area. A few SMWs may be needed for these areas, but otherwise expect winds will be predominately SCA. Seas of 5-7 feet this afternoon in strong SSE swell gradually decrease to 4-6 ft overnight as winds continue blowing offshore. Waves will peak between 3-5 ft on the Ches Bay. Tuesday through Thursday: Offshore winds persist through the period, with W-NW winds Tuesday and Tuesday night backing to the W-SW Wed as a weak surface ridge develops over the waters in response to an approaching cold front. SCA conditions persist Tue and Tue night, except over the northern coastal waters, where Gale Warnings (35 kt gusts) linger into midday Tuesday. In-house wind probabilities for low-end SCA (>18 kt) have increased in the Bay Wed night/Thursday morning, as another weak back door front drops across the waters. CAA is rather weak behind this front, and as such the duration of any SCA would be relatively short, with winds diminishing Thu aftn and evening. Waves subside from 2-4 ft Tuesday to 2-3 ft Tue night, then 1-2 ft for the rest of the period. Seas subside from 3-5 ft tomorrow to 2-4 ft Tue night through late week. Friday/This Weekend: Sub-SCA flow backs to the SSW Friday and Saturday ~10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft. Another round of SCA is possible Sat night into early Monday, as low pressure develops along the stalled front to the south and crosses S/SE of the local area, backing winds around to the NNW over the weekend. Wind probabilities have introduced some low-end probabilities during this period that will need monitoring in the coming days, as well as our next chance for rain showers next weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>632- 634-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>638. Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC NEAR TERM...AC/RMM SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...ERI MARINE...MAM