120 

FXAK67 PAJK 292326

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Juneau AK

326 PM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.SYNOPSIS...



Key Messages:



- Rain shower chances continue for the next few days for the outer

  coast and Icy Strait corridor including Juneau.



- Diurnal increases in winds for the northern inner channel and

  southern panhandle communities.



- Slightly stronger system to possibly impact the southern

  panhandle by the end of the week, bringing increased rain rates. 





&&



.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday/... Mostly zonal flow aloft is 

expected to continue throughout the entire forecast period,

leading to somewhat more uncertain yet less impactful weather. The

highest magnitude of flow looks to pass south of the panhandle,

digging a tad further south from an upper level low on the

northern portion of the jet. As a result, consistent troughing and

divergence over the northern half of the panhandle is expected,

keeping rain chances in the forecast, primarily for areas exposed

to a west wind. Furthermore, looking near the 850-700 mb layer,

modest cold air advection looks to steadily strengthen the ridge

in the outer gulf through the next 24 hours. Therefore, enhanced

westerlies, particularly in the gulf, Sumner Strait, Peril Strait,

and Icy Strait are expected to continue. This looks to impact

particularly the coastal communities along with communities in Icy

Strait all the way to Juneau. With all the aforementioned factors,

kept at least a slight chance of rain for these areas for the next

72 hours, with little chance that clouds can widely be wiped away.

The far northern Inner Channels have much higher likelihood of

clearing, due to little moisture aloft and westerly orographic

flow wringing out moisture on the Coast Mountains and Chilkat

Range. The inner portions of the southern panhandle is not

expecting to see much precipitation, but may see some marine layer

clouds overnight before they retreat once again during the daytime

tomorrow and Wednesday.



.LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday/...We start the period out 

with continued general ridging & onshore flow over the Panhandle 

Thursday morning. A weak shortwave will also track southeastward, 

moving south of the Panhandle, over Haida Gwaii, on Thursday. This 

low will have minimal impact on southern Panhandle weather. Northern 

Lynn Canal will have southeasterly winds of around 15 kt Thursday & 

Friday due to a tightened south to north pressure gradient that will 

be in place between the ridge parked over the eastern Gulf & 

Panhandle & lower pressure over northern British Columbia & southern 

Canadian Yukon region. For Friday, a weakening low will begin its 

push eastward through the southern Gulf of Alaska, eventually 

pushing through the Dixon Entrance on Saturday. This will bring with 

it increased chances for more substantial rainfall & 

southeasterly winds around 15 kt for the eastern Gulf waters, 

particularly for the southern Panhandle, & increased southerly 

winds up to around 20 kt around the Dixon Entrance & the southern 

half of Clarence Strait.



&&



.AVIATION...Improvement into MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon

across the panhandle, with occasional dips into IFR VSBYs/CIGs as

rain showers pass over the coastal region. Expecting current

conditions to remain generally the same through tonight and winds

will decrease gradually as daytime heating ceases. As the high 

pressure in the Gulf begins to weaken tomorrow, there is less 

confidence in influence from the marine layer overnight. However, 

rain showers return to the northern and central panhandle and 

along the outer coast late tonight into early tomorrow morning, 

lowering CIGs to MVFR conditions from sites PASI northward, and 

including PAKW, through 15Z to 17Z. Chances of rain showers 

decrease into the afternoon, leaving low scud clouds in their 

wake, and conditions are expected to improve to VFR across the 

entire region.



&&



.MARINE...

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A weakening ridge over the Gulf 

of Alaska is continuing to drive onshore, northwesterly winds of 

15 to 20 kts through the end of the day today. Into Tuesday, the 

ridge is expected to weaken, lowering winds along the entire coast

with the strongest up to 15 kts along the southern panhandle 

between Cape Decision and Dixon Entrance. On Wednesday, the 

patterns shifts from onshore flow to relatively weak NW winds 

along the coast, with minimal impacts to ocean entrances. Seas are

also expected to gradually diminish to 3-4ft by Wednesday evening

before increasing again towards the end of the week.



Inside (Inner Channels): Over the next few days, winds will be 

primarily driven by the diurnal cycle, though will decrease in 

intensity each day as both the high pressure in the Gulf and the 

thermal trough in Canada weaken. The strongest winds are expected in 

the Icy Strait Corridor from the SW and Northern Lynn Canal from the 

S, at around 15kts, peaking in the afternoon. Wednesday, the 

strongest winds across the entire panhandle will be primarily 

isolated near Taiya Inlet.



&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-644-661. 



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...NC

LONG TERM...JLC

AVIATION...BAS/NC

MARINE...BAS



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