026 FXAK67 PAJK 301752 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 852 AM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025 .UPDATE... 18zAviation update Unfavorable flying conditions persist today for the northern Panhandle, with multiple disturbances moving across the region, driving IFR to LIFR snow. PAHN and PAGY continue with LIFR conditions, with gusts to 50 knots at PAGY driving BLSNO. For the central and southern Panhandle MVFR conditions persist; however, VFR between showers. A more extensive band of precip this afternoon will allow MVFR to be the dominant category, CIGS Aob 2000ft and VSBY 3-5SM. Freezing rain is becoming more likely for the northern coast as the 12z upper air sounding indicated a decent warm tongue of air above the surface. Have coordinated with AAWU on this threat. During times of heavier precip expect to transition to snow but have let FZRASN be the dominant precip type until later this evening when colder air moves in from the south. Strong winds will continue throughout the day before starting to slowly decrease this afternoon into this evening. With these winds, wind shear remains a concern, with the strongest wind shear over the southern panhandle around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft. Wind shear will also diminish late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 521 AM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Winter storm continues in Northern Southeast Alaska with multiple rounds of snow through early Wednesday. - Arctic Boundary is around Angoon and Pelican, so places south of that like Sitka to Kake to Petersburg and south are in the 40s. - Localized flooding from streams over the southern panhandle. SHORT TERM...A low in the northern Gulf will remain relatively stationary through the short term. Outflow winds have helped pushed the arctic boundary a bit further south and is currently between Angoon and Kake. Locations north of the boundary are in the 20s to low 30s (teens for Haines and Skagway) will see snow, while locations south are in the upper 30s to 40s and will remain rain. Multiple disturbances and waves of moistures will traverse around the low in the Gulf into SEAK. One wave is currently pushing through the northern panhandle, with two more expected to push through in its wake through tonight. Snow rates could be 1 to 2 inches per hour as the waves push across. While we saw freezing rain when precip rates let up yesterday, not expecting to see as much today as model soundings and temps aloft are not as warm. Still, can't rule out a brief period of light freezing rain along the Icy Strait corridor and Yakutat today in between bouts of snow. The Winter Storm Warnings for the Gustavus, Juneau, Haines, and Skagway areas were extended last night until noon Wednesday. Hoonah, and Elfin Cove also got a Winter Weather Advisory as they are cold enough for snow currently, but may pop above freezing for a time Tuesday afternoon for either very wet snow or a mix to develop. For Haines and Skagway, colder outflow conditions are bringing increasing winds this morning. Haines has gusted to around 40 mph and Skagway has nearly nearly 60 mph. Have added areas of blowing snow for today and updated the Winter Storm Warning to mention the strong winds and periods significantly reduced visibility today. Looking at webcams near Skagway, the strong gusts are bringing brief spurts of significantly reduced visibility of a half mile or less. However, given the intermittent nature of the gusts and vis reductions, refrained from issuing a Blizzard Warning. Further south, expect persistent rain to continue, although the heavier rain has ended as the atmospheric river as shifted south of the region. Flood Advisories continue for this morning for the Ward Lake Recreational Area near Ketchikan and for the Thorne River Bridge on POW Island. LONG TERM...The low pressure lingers in the Gulf into midweek, weakening gradually throughout the week, bringing some waves of moisture in from the south as weak shortwaves push through. This will continue to bring showers across the panhandle, and with the colder air setting into place throughout the week with colder air gradually pushing further southward into Thursday and Friday. This will allow for a cooling trend in temperatures through the end of the week. As northerly air upstream strengthens, it looks to dig the existing trough southward and keep a 500 mb low over the northern panhandle, cutting off our main moisture tap by Thursday mainly for the northern panhandle down through Icy Strait. Southerly flow continues into the southern panhandle however from this digging upper level trough, as a surface low develops Thursday into Friday to the south. This low will gradually push northwards by Friday, bringing some precipitation to the far southern panhandle, even as the northern half of the panhandle is cut off from moisture and begins to see some outflow setup again bringing cooler air down from the Yukon. Overall the end of this week has some potential for seeing continued showers before the next organized system moves in, however uncertainty remains as some solutions keep the panhandle much drier and others continue to bring in some light precipitation. Additional snow accumulations will largely remain a concern into Wednesday from Icy Strait northwards as the low continues bringing snow showers and moisture into the area, though amounts at this time remain uncertain. Any moisture that isn't blocked off by the synoptic setup Thursday and Friday will largely remain lighter, as moisture will not be tapped into as easily and as the low remains weak offshore. The cooler temperatures may allow for some mixing far into the southern panhandle if the wave of moisture of the low to the south is able to move into the area, with snow levels dropping across the panhandle from north to south as the cold air pushes down across the area Wednesday through Friday. AVIATION... A variety of flying conditions continue across the panhandle due to rain and snow showers. Over the northern panhandle, from Yakutat south to Juneau and Gustavus, snow continues, reducing visibilities. At times, these visibilities drop to below 1 SM because of heavy snow. Yakutat is actually seeing a break in precipitation, but snow will begin once again Tuesday morning allowing flying conditions to drop back down to MVFR and IFR. The central to southern panhandle are also seeing reduced flying conditions due to rain dropping ceilings and visibilities to AoB 3000 ft and times of visibilities below 2 SM. The entire panhandle will continue to see these lower flying conditions throughout the day, sometimes varying slightly better to VFR or worse to IFR/LIFR. The similarity across the panhandle is that precipitation rates are likely to slightly diminish late Tuesday allowing for slightly improved flying conditions. Winds continue to impact many parts of the panhandle with sustained winds of 15 to 20 kts with gusts of 30 to 40 kts, and gusts to 50 kts near Skagway. With these strong winds, combined with the snow over the northern panhandle, blowing snow remains a concern throughout the day helping to reduce visibilities. These strong winds will continue throughout the day before starting to slowly decrease this afternoon into this evening. With these winds, wind shear remains a concern, with the strongest wind shear over the southern panhandle around 35 to 45 kts at 2000 ft. Wind shear will also diminish late Tuesday into Wednesday. MARINE... Inside (Inner Channels): A frontal boundary is splitting the panhandle and bringing two regimes. Across southern Chatham, Sumner and Clarence Straits, fresh to near gale southerly winds persist. North of the boundary, a fresh to strong outflow pattern is prevalent. Waters near Point Couverden experiencing winds around 50 kt with higher gusts. The boundary lifts north through the day and into tonight, with a shift in winds to the south expected north Stephens Passage and northern Chatham. Uncertain how far north into Lynn Canal the boundary and wind shift make it tonight, but any reversal would be brief as the boundary is expected to shift back south by late week as outflow pattern sets up across the panhandle. Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low out in the northern Gulf will persist through midweek, bringing fresh to strong breezes. 12-16 ft waves are expected to continue with the predominant swell direction remaining out of the south and west. Winds and seas diminish through the latter half of the week as the low weakens. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318>320- 325. Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ321-322. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-034-036-053- 641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...Contino AVIATION...AP MARINE...DS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau