459 FXAK67 PAJK 300607 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 907 PM AKST Mon Dec 29 2025 UPDATE...The main update for the forecast is an extension for the winter storm warnings for the northern inner channels, and the addition of some winter weather advisories for Hoonah, and Elfin Cove. The rain/snow line this evening has moved southward a little and is now south of Tenakee Springs and between Elfin Cove and Pelican. The low in the gulf is also not moving anytime soon and is continuing to send waves of moisture into the northern inner channels through at least mid week. Two specific waves are being watched. One expected to move in late tonight and a second late Tuesday night. The entrenched cold air will keep precip all snow so we have elected to extend the winter storm warnings for the Gustavus, Juneau, Haines, and Skagway areas until noon Wednesday. Hoonah, and Elfin Cove also got a winter weather advisory as they are cold enough for snow currently, but may pop above freezing for a time Tuesday afternoon for either very wet snow or a mix to develop. PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 418 PM MONDAY... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Winter storm continues in Northern Southeast Alaska; slight chances of freezing rain in the Juneau area. - Arctic Boundary is around Angoon and Pelican is so places south of that like Sitka to Kake to Petersburg and south are in the 40s. - Localized flooding from stream over the southern panhandle. SHORT TERM...Heavy rains over the southern panhandle ( Ketchikan and Sitka broke daily records on Sunday ) wound down with reports of several streams pushing outside of banks, so needing Flood Advisories issued and continuing into the Monday evening. Rains snow line running from about Cross Sound to near Tenakee Springs then east to south of Taku Inlet. North of the line snow showers persist and were occasionally putting down 1 to 2 inches of snow an hour. Also between some of the shower from Gustavus to Juneau and including the Yakutat area are pockets of freezing rain. Just enough to put some glaze down for most areas. Snow amounts Tonight for the snowy region are upwards of 5 to 8 inches, some locations may not see that much. Showers look to be continuing into Tuesday we will be looking at the potential need of extending warnings for snowfall for Northeast panhandle areas. Stay tuned. For todays extra safety message: In areas with the heavier snowfalls, if you have planes or boats, check on them if possible to do removal of the accumulations before damage to the vehicles happen. Homeowners may need to watch amount of snow load on their roof as well. LONG TERM...The low pressure lingers in the Gulf into midweek, weakening gradually throughout the week, bringing some waves of moisture in from the south as weak shortwaves push through. This will continue to bring showers across the panhandle, and with the colder air setting into place throughout the week with colder air gradually pushing further southward into Thursday and Friday. This will allow for a cooling trend in temperatures through the end of the week. As northerly air upstream strengthens, it looks to dig the existing trough southward and keep a 500 mb low over the northern panhandle, cutting off our main moisture tap by Thursday mainly for the northern panhandle down through Icy Strait. Southerly flow continues into the southern panhandle however from this digging upper level trough, as a surface low develops Thursday into Friday to the south. This low will gradually push northwards by Friday, bringing some precipitation to the far southern panhandle, even as the northern half of the panhandle is cut off from moisture and begins to see some outflow setup again bringing cooler air down from the Yukon. Overall the end of this week has some potential for seeing continued showers before the next organized system moves in, however uncertainty remains as some solutions keep the panhandle much drier and others continue to bring in some light precipitation. Additional snow accumulations will largely remain a concern into Wednesday from Icy Strait northwards as the low continues bringing snow showers and moisture into the area, though amounts at this time remain uncertain. Any moisture that isn't blocked off by the synoptic setup Thursday and Friday will largely remain lighter, as moisture will not be tapped into as easily and as the low remains weak offshore. The cooler temperatures may allow for some mixing far into the southern panhandle if the wave of moisture of the low to the south is able to move into the area, with snow levels dropping across the panhandle from north to south as the cold air pushes down across the area Wednesday through Friday. AVIATION... Northern panhandle from Angoon and Pelican northward continues to see periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis due to snow this evening. South of there MVFR ceilings and vis due to rain rules. Gusty winds are also being observed at ground level in Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet (from the north), and in the southern Clarence Strait area (from the south). Tuesday sees another front moves across the Panhandle, with precip trending stronger and more extensive especially toward the early morning hours. Anticipate much of the Icy Strait corridor north to the border to see widespread LIFR to IFR snow. For the central and southern Panhandle MVFR rain dropping CIGS to AoB 2000 ft. There will be a period of slight improvement toward Tuesday afternoon, but another wave of moisture is expected to arrive Tuesday night which will drop vis and ceilings again especially in the areas that are still seeing snow. We see a short break of LLWS early tonight before our next system moves in. Expect 30-40 kts of wind near 2000ft for most of the region, becoming SW as a front moves over the Panhandle by Tuesday evening. MARINE... Inner Channels: Southerly winds for big chunk panhandle 20 to 25 for most of those areas, with Clarence starting at Gale and diminishing to 30 kt. North of the Icy Strait Corridor, Northerly outflow 30 kt in Lynn Canal, weakening headed into Tuesday. East winds out of Cross Sound. Outer Coastal Waters: 20 to 30 kt winds along the coast and out towards the Central Gulf. Seas in the low to mid teens and this will continue into the Wednesday time frame. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ318>320- 325. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ321-322. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031>034-036-053-641>644-651- 652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau