725 FXAK69 PAFG 282356 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 356 PM AKDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .SYNOPSIS... With a cold front having passed through a good portion of the state, cooler conditions have begun to settle in as the front as continues to lift north across the Northern Interior towards the Brooks Range and North Slope. Scattered showers will continue across most of Northern Alaska today, with the heaviest, more steady precipitation amounts expected in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges. Colder temperatures accompanying this system will support light snow across highest elevations of the Brooks and Alaska Ranges in addition to the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast around Point Thomson and Kaktovik. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain expected. Colder and unsettled conditions will continue over the next several days as a broad troughing pattern sets up over Northern Alaska. Thunderstorm chances will be minimal today, but will pick back up starting Monday across the Southeast Interior as an easterly wave builds over the Eastern Alaska Range. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Scattered showers will continue across the Interior following a departing cold front lifting north. Additional rainfall amounts through Tuesday will be around a T-0.25" in the Tanana Valley, 0.25-0.75" in the Alaska Range, and 0.10-0.25" north of the Tanana. - Minimal coverage of thunderstorms today will give way to isolated thunderstorms Monday onwards for the Upper Tanana and Fortymile Country. - Below normal highs in the 50s/60s have returned across the Interior today, which will continue early this week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by midweek. West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold front will continue to lift north across Western Alaska today with scattered to widespread showers, southwest wind gusts up to 30 mph, and accompanying colder temperatures. - While the bulk of rainfall has already fallen from the cold front, additional widespread moderate amounts will shift north throughout the day today. Scattered showers will continue early to mid next week as a Bering Sea low moves inland. - Highs in the 50s/60s today which will continue into early next week. Gradually warming temperatures are expected back by midweek. Locally cooler conditions will exist along the coast. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A cold front will continue to lift north across far Northern Alaska today into Monday with scattered showers and wind gusts up to 30 mph. - Additional rainfall amounts with this system through Monday are expected to be around 0.25-0.75" in the Brooks Range and a 0.10-0.40" across the Southeast Arctic Plains and Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast east of Deadhorse. - Snow showers will be possible across highest elevations of the Brooks Range and across the Arctic Coast from Point Thomson east to Kaktovik, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM tonight to 10 PM Monday for a rain/snow mix and freezing rain amounts of around a T-0.10". - While temperatures will see a cooling trend in the Brooks Range into early next week, southerly flow will lead to warming conditions across the North Slope. Highs regionwide will trend to being in the 40s/50s/60s Sunday into Monday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 546 dm low centered over Nunivak Island with a 577 dm ridge of high pressure centered over Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories. In between these two features, a cold front and shortwave trough continue to lift north, with the boundary extending from the Seward Peninsula through the Northern Interior towards the Alcan Border. Breezy wind gusts up to 30 mph have filled in behind the passing front, with winds remaining elevated into Monday. Colder temperatures accompanying the front has conditions feeling more like fall out there for most across Northern Alaska, which will remain conducive for high elevation snow in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges, including also along the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast. Warmer air overunning colder air at the surface from Point Thomson to Kaktovik will lead to a rain/snow mix and freezing rain in this region, with a Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM Monday for possible ice accumulations Early this week, a broad upper level troughing pattern is looking to settle in across the state. This will continue to bring cooler temperature and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the middle portions of the week. Isolated convection is expected to return to the Fortymile, Upper Tanana, and Alaska Range starting Monday afternoon, with those chances expanding towards midweek as temperatures see a gradual warming trend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather across much of the state will moderate through the start of the week, with general troughing moving around the west coast, south central, and into the Yukon. Anticipate chances for continued light rain showers bringing wetting rains, with temperatures remaining below 75F and min RH likely above 40 percent, through Tuesday. There exists some possibility of a thunderstorm or two out in Fortymile and the eastern AK range Monday and Tuesday afternoon; however, for the rest of the region thunderstorm chances remain near 0 percent. These storms will not be as prolific as the previous week. One note is that while the majority of the area will see light rain showers with wetting rains, the Central Interior and western Yukon Flats could be a bit drier from southerly flow coming down the AK range and White Mountains. Wednesday most of the Southwest area, Central/Western Interior, and Yukon Flats will see a brief break in rain, with min RH creeping back down to 30 to 40 percent and temps in the low to mid 70s. Along the Northwest Arctic Coast snow is likely mid-week. Stay tuned. && .HYDROLOGY... Roughly 1-1.5" of rain has fallen across much of the Yukon Flats and parts of the Fortymile. This represents a 1 in 25 year precipitation event for isolated locations. This has led to some sharp rives rises, but no flooding has been reported. The ongoing system will continue to move north. Another 0.5" of rain is expected over the Brooks Range near Atigun Pass before the system dissipates. Expect continued rises and higher water, especially for the Fortymile and Slate Creek near Coldfoot, with no flooding expected at this time. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Saturday Upper level troughing persists into the late week, as model guidance has kept chances for ridging to the south. As a result, scattered showers will be likely across Northern Alaska, with the highest chances over the Upper Tanana Valley, Alaska Range, and Eastern Brooks Range. The lowest chances are expected for the Western North Slope and Arctic Coast as a high pressure system over the Arctic Ocean acts as a barrier for moisture traveling north of the Brooks Range. Daily, at least isolated thunderstorm chances are expected to to return across the Interior as temperatures see a gradual warming trend by mid to late week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......MacKay KEY MESSAGES...MacKay SHORT TERM.....MacKay FIRE WEATHER...AP HYDROLOGY......APRFC LONG TERM......AS