317 FXAK68 PAFC 300009 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 409 PM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Model agreement has increased confidence that Southcentral will continue to see a cloudy, generally cool and showery pattern persist through midweek as a low swings across the southern mainland. The areas receiving less rainfall today - the western Kenai and the Copper River Basin - is where isolated thunderstorm chances were reintroduced into the forecast; as clearing continues this afternoon, these areas may see enough warming and increased instability to allow one or two storms to pop up, though this is a generous forecast. Tomorrow, the same pattern continues, through a degree or two warmer, with isolated thunderstorm chances confined to the Copper River Basin and southeastern Alaskan Range. By Tuesday night/Wednesday, the transient low will drop south towards Southeast and a brief period of weak ridging (and a brief glimpse of sunshine) will transit through the region before the next low pressure moves in for the end of the week. AB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... A pattern of generally cloudy, breezier, and cooler conditions continue as a pair of low pressure systems move through Southwest Alaska and the Bering. The first of which, a weakening, vertically stacked, low pressure system is transiting across Southwest Alaska through tomorrow. The upper level vorticity associated with this feature could bring just enough lift for isolated thunderstorms over the interior Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with about a 10% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. For Tuesday, a slight warm-up for interior Southwest Alaska as the upper low continues eastward and cloud cover diminishes behind it. By Wednesday morning, the front of the next incoming low pressure system will spread light rainfall across the Southwest coastline, pushing inland through the day. For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, stormier weather returns as a North Pacific low and its front move in through mid-week. Expect widespread rain and gales along the front. As the low occludes and moves into the Bering Sea, expect another surge of 20-30 kt winds for Adak and Atka Tuesday and Wednesday on the backside of the low. Fog may persist over the Pribilof Islands through Tuesday morning, replaced by steady light rainfall beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... An active pattern across Alaska continues over Fourth of July weekend. A weak low over the Gulf moves into the Alaska Peninsula by Friday night. This will decrease cloud cover through out Friday over Southcentral. An upper level low over the Bering Strait will bring periods of rain over southwest Alaska, before moving over the Alaska Peninsula, then the Gulf Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The low will remain nearly stationary through Monday. Mostly cloudy with showers are expected for Southcentral and Alaska Peninsula through the weekend into early next week. A ridge is present over the western Aleutians, bringing low level clouds and fog over the Aleutians. Saturday morning sees the arrival of a North Pacific low entering the Bering. There is significant model disagreement on the timing of the low moving across the Aleutians. Saturday night will see a low form off the front off of the North Pacific Low and progress eastward before diving southward of the Alaska Peninsula Monday. The North Pacific low will begin moving eastward Sunday and move south of the Alaska Peninsula as well Monday night. -SS && .AVIATION... PANC...periods of rain showers are expected to continue into Tuesday. There is a chance for occasional MVFR ceilings through Tuesday afternoon. South to southeasterly winds gusting to 25 kt expected to continue through late this evening. && $$