183 

FXAK68 PAFC 291246

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

446 AM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA 

(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...



An upper low over the Kuskokwim Delta this morning will begin to

shift eastward into interior Alaska this afternoon. Moisture and 

southwesterly flow downstream of the low will overspread 

Southcentral with increasing clouds and rain chances as a result.

The greatest lift and moisture associated with the approaching low

will keep rain chances largely confined to along and north of the

Turnagain Arm, with rain chances further south beginning from the

Seward highway eastward into Prince William Sound. Thunderstorm 

chances for Southcentral, which were advertised in earlier 

forecasts, have been removed. The thinking being that increased 

cloud cover and showers will limit the development of better 

instability later in the day.



Another round of showers is forecast for Southcentral on Tuesday

as low pressure tracks from along the coast into the eastern Gulf.

Tuesday could be a few degrees cooler with the passage of the low.

Like Monday, thunderstorm chances are in question. If enough

clearing and instability develops, a few lightning strikes will 

be possible for the Mat- Su Valleys, Anchorage, and the northern 

Kenai Peninsula. The southern half of the Kenai looks to stay 

mostly dry. Showers look to persist in the Copper Basin for 

Wednesday as the rest of Southcentral looks dry. However, Kodiak 

Island will begin to see more unsettled and showery conditions by 

Wednesday as another low in the Bering Sea sends its front 

eastward and across the island by Wednesday morning. As of now 

precipitation looks to remain light across Kodiak Island for 

Wednesday.



BL/DN/PA



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 

1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...



The forecast remains on track. Two lows moving through the Bering

and Southwest Alaska will generally promote cloudy, breezier, and

cooler conditions. A weakening, vertically stacked, low pressure 

system will transit across Southwest Alaska through tomorrow. The

upper level vorticity associated with this feature could bring

just enough lift for isolated thunderstorms over the interior 

Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, with about a 10% chance of 

thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. For Tuesday, a slight 

warm-up for interior Southwest Alaska as the upper low continues 

eastward and cloud cover diminishes behind it. By Wednesday 

morning, the front of the next incoming low pressure system will 

spread light rainfall across the Southwest coastline, pushing 

inland through the day. 



For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, stormier weather returns

as a North Pacific low and its front move in through mid-week.

Expect widespread rain and gales along the front. As the low

occludes and moves into the Bering Sea, expect another surge of

20-30 kt winds for Adak and Atka Tuesday and Wednesday on the 

backside of the low.



-KC/CL



&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through 

Saturday)...



An active pattern looks to continue for the long term forecast.

Due to many smaller scale features moving in, there is some

uncertainty exactly where they will track. Wednesday will start 

with shortwaves and fronts in the Bering causing elevated winds 

and rainfall for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland.

Southcentral will see this troughing stretch into the Gulf of

Alaska. This would allow for rainfall, but there is uncertainty 

on how quickly the troughing will move into the Gulf of Alaska.

This means that rainfall in Southcentral could be delayed if the 

troughing moves in slower. Things become more uncertain Thursday 

through Saturday as more features move in. The current thinking is

that a ridge will set up in the Bering by Friday, where it will 

remain through Saturday. Meanwhile, a larger low will move into 

the Gulf of Alaska, bringing rainfall to the Southwest and 

Southcentral Mainlands, including Kodiak Island. As for 

thunderstorms, it seems like convective potential will be low 

through next week, so storm potential is low for now.



-JAR





&&





.AVIATION...



PANC...There is a chance (20 to 30 percent) for showers over the 

terminal late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Southerly 

winds gusting to 20 kt expected to continue through this evening. 



&&





&&$$