962 

FXAK68 PAFC 290028

AFDAFC



Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

428 PM AKDT Sun Jun 28 2026



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA 

(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...



Cloudy conditions encompass most of Southcentral Alaska this 

afternoon. The one exception is Kodiak Island where most of today 

has been quite sunny. However, a few mid-level clouds are trying 

to sneak in from the southwest. A few lightning strikes occurred 

earlier this afternoon to the northwest of Glennallen. Isolated 

thunderstorms continue to be possible across northern portions of 

the Copper River Basin the rest of this afternoon into the early 

evening. A very low chance (10%) exists on Monday afternoon for 

portions of the Copper Basin near the Talkeetna Mountains and 

again on Tuesday afternoon for the central Copper Basin. 

Elsewhere, expect isolated to scattered showers to continue across

Southcentral the rest of today and into Monday. 



An upper-level low in the eastern Bering Sea comes ashore of 

Southwest Alaska on Monday and moves east and over Southcentral by

Tuesday. This will bring another round of showers to the Copper 

Basin, with maybe a few lightning strikes as mentioned previously,

the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage, and the northern Kenai Peninsula. 

The southern half of the Kenai looks to stay mostly dry. Showers 

look to persist in the Copper Basin for Wednesday as the rest of 

Southcentral looks dry. However, Kodiak Island will begin to see 

more unsettled and showery conditions by Wednesday as another low 

in the Bering Sea sends its front eastward and across the island 

by Wednesday morning. As of now precipitation looks to remain 

light across Kodiak Island for Wednesday.



&&





.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 

1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...



Several centers of low pressure moving through the Bering and

Southwest Alaska will continue to promote cloudy, breezier, and 

cooler conditions. Southwest Alaska to see a break in thunderstorm

potential through the remainder of the weekend, though much of 

the region will likely pick up some light rain as widespread rain 

showers move through. A weakening, vertically stacked, low 

pressure system will move into the Southwest Alaska coastline 

through this evening. By Monday, a robust upper low moving over 

Southwest may create just enough elevated lift for isolated 

afternoon thunderstorms over the interior Kuskokwim Delta and 

Valley. For Tuesday, a slight warm-up for interior Southwest 

Alaska as the upper low continues eastward and cloud cover 

diminishes behind it. By Wednesday morning, the front of the next 

incoming low pressure system will spread light rainfall across the

Southwest coastline, pushing inland through the day. 



For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, expect mildly improving

conditions as the current Bering Sea low exits into Southwest

Alaska. Later this afternoon, a North Pacific low and its front

will approach the Western Aleutians and Bering, bringing 

widespread rain and gales across the region. The leading front 

will move over Adak by Monday morning, and Unalaska and the 

Pribilofs by Monday evening. As the low occludes and moves into 

the Bering Sea, expect another surge of 20-30 kt winds for Adak 

and Atka for Tuesday on the backside of the low.



-KC/CL



&&





.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through 

Saturday)...



An active pattern looks to continue for the long term forecast.

Due to many smaller scale features moving in, there is some

uncertainty exactly where they will track. Wednesday will start 

with shortwaves and fronts in the Bering causing elevated winds 

and rainfall for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland.

Southcentral will see this troughing stretch into the Gulf of

Alaska. This would allow for rainfall, but there is uncertainty 

on how quickly the troughing will move into the Gulf of Alaska.

This means that rainfall in Southcentral could be delayed if the 

troughing moves in slower. Things become more uncertain Thursday 

through Saturday as more features move in. The current thinking is

that a ridge will set up in the Bering by Friday, where it will 

remain through Saturday. Meanwhile, a larger low will move into 

the Gulf of Alaska, bringing rainfall to the Southwest and 

Southcentral Mainlands, including Kodiak Island. As for 

thunderstorms, it seems like convective potential will be low 

through next week, so storm potential is low for now.



-JAR



&&

.AVIATION...



PANC...There is a chance (40 percent) for rain showers to drift 

over the terminal this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions are 

expected with ceilings dropping below 5000 feet through this 

evening. Light southerly winds expected with brief gusts up to 15 

to 20 kts.



&&





$$