809 FXAK68 PAFC 010134 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 PM AKST Sat Feb 28 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)... While there will be some small and gradual moderation in temperatures the next few days, the frigid weather is here to stay. Right at the moment, Arctic air envelops all of mainland Alaska, with a stationary west to east oriented upper trough axis sitting along the southern AK coast. A short-wave trough extending from a low in the Canadian Arctic is digging southeastward across Interior AK and into Southcentral this afternoon. The air with this trough is not really much colder than what is in place, so if anything it will just reinforce and prolong the cold temperatures. Gap winds are beginning to strengthen through the Alaska Range as the trough passes by. Gap winds persist along the coast as well due to persistent thermal and pressure gradients between the cold surface high over mainland AK and lower pressure in the Gulf and Pacific ocean. Temperatures are frigid everywhere, with single digits to teens most places. Meanwhile, a vertically stacked low remains over the north-central Pacific with a stationary front south of the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and the western Gulf. A short-wave ridge downstream over the northeast Pacific is progressing eastward bringing southerly steering flow aloft. This is slowly pushing the front northward toward the Gulf. Southcentral will remain under the influence of the Arctic trough, with prevailing northerly flow aloft and occasional weak short- waves dropping southward across mainland Alaska over the next few days. The short-wave moving overhead this afternoon will just barely push offshore into the Gulf tonight before exiting eastward. This will cause strengthening of coastal gap winds and very cold wind chills once again. Will hoist another round of cold weather products for tonight through Sunday morning for wind chills along the coast and ambient very cold temperatures in the Copper River Basin. None of the other short-waves look as strong as the current one, but would still expect some fluctuations in strength of gap winds as they traverse Southcentral Sunday through Monday. There will be a very slight moderation in temperatures the next couple days, but they will remain well below normal for this time of year (generally 15 to 25 degrees below normal). Kodiak will be the one place to see some clouds and precipitation. The aforementioned surface front will lift northward into the southern Gulf tonight through Sunday then weaken through Monday. Some prior model guidance had brought this front all the way north to near Kodiak Island, but all models n ow agree the front will remain well to the south. Kodiak Island will still get some snow out of this Sunday through Sunday night, but the main forcing mechanism will be instability and upslope flow. With north to northeast winds, this will favor Kodiak City and the northeast half of the island. The precipitation will be showery in nature, so accumulation will vary over small distances and could be briefly and locally moderate in intensity at times. Nonetheless, expect light accumulation for most areas on the order of a couple inches. As the upper trough digs southward into the eastern Bering Sunday through Monday, increasing westerly flow aloft will push all remaining precipitation on Kodiak eastward into the Gulf. -SEB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today through Monday)... High pressure continues to preside over much of the northern and western Bering Sea as the center of the ridge slowly drifts west over/near Siberia. Mostly closed-cell cumulus covers nearly the entire portion of the Bering Sea not covered by sea ice, fueled by very low level instability in the marine layer as cold air streams off of the ice edge and across open water. Some of this cloud cover is producing snow showers, affecting the Pribilof Islands and the Near, Rat, and Andreanof Islands at times. In terms of the outlook through the start of next week, expect much of the same conditions to persist as the overarching pattern remains very steady-state. Temperatures across Southwest will begin to warm with time as the Arctic air mass modifies through Monday, but the progress will be excruciatingly slow. Wind chills down in the -40s across the Kuskokwim Delta will rise back into the -20s after a few hours of sunshine today, but it looks likely for values to drop back below -40 again after sunset tonight. Thus, the Cold Weather Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta has been extended out through early Sunday afternoon. Wind chills across much of Southwest will remain in the -20s to -30s through early next week, even as temperatures slowly rebound a few degrees each day. Aside from the cold temperatures, dry and mostly clear conditions will persist through Monday. For the Bering and Aleutians, temperatures will not be nearly as cold as Southwest, but still below average for the start of March. Lows will be mostly in the mid 20s along with highs struggling to get above freezing for the next several days. A portion of the trough digging over Southwest will also close off into an upper level low near the Pribilofs this afternoon, then drive southwest towards Shemya on Sunday. This will send another surge of cold air across the central/western Bering, causing a renewed round of more intense convective snow showers that will spread into the western half of the Aleutian Chain through Monday morning. Otherwise, expect gusty northeast winds at or just shy of Gale force to continue across the southern Bering and along the Aleutian through at least Monday afternoon. -AS/AM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through Saturday)... Some model differences in the long-term will keep the precipitation forecast confidence below average. A lean toward the GFS ensembles brings a broad trough over the Aleutians by the middle of next week with a shot of colder temperatures dropping southward out of Northeast Russia and into the western Bering. Further east, a North Pacific low lifts into the Aleutian Chain on Friday, with a triple-point low developing over the western Gulf of Alaska. Increasing chances for widespread snow showers over the Aleutians will exist by the end of next week. Meanwhile, the triple-point low lifting into the Kenai Peninsula would result in snow showers overspreading parts of Southcentral Friday into Saturday. While forecast confidence is low with regard to where surface features and precipitation ultimately develop, forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures through the end of next week. BL && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist. && $$