001 FXAK68 PAFC 301407 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 507 AM AKST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Thursday night)... The large scale pattern is right back where it has been for nearly all of December, with a high amplitude blocking ridge parked over the central Bering Sea. A corresponding high amplitude trough is positioned over Southcentral, the Gulf of AK, and the Northeast Pacific. It is anchored by a closed low aloft, with numerous short-waves and surface lows embedded within the cyclonic circulation. Most of the precipitation is now confined to the Gulf waters and Kodiak Island, though some showers are making it onshore along the North Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. In particular, easterly low level flow is enhancing snowfall over western Prince William Sound and portions of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Automated snow depth sensors indicate anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of snow has fallen across this region in the past 24 hours. The intrusion of the Gulf trough into Southcentral has allowed winds to diminish across the region, though there are still locally strong and gusty winds through the coastal mountain gaps. This is leading to localized areas of blowing snow, including through Thompson Pass. Bands of snow have rotated off the Gulf into Kodiak Island, leading to snow and blowing snow. It dies appear the heaviest snow is remaining offshore, sparing Kodiak City from worse conditions. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for both Thompson Pass and the northeast end of Kodiak Island for low visibilities in blowing snow. The upper low anchoring the trough will track toward Southeast AK today, pulling the entire cyclonic circulation with it and bringing an end to snowfall across Kodiak and Southcentral. With the shift in flow and pressure gradient orientation, westerly winds will rapidly strengthen in Whittier and easily blow around the low density snow currently falling. Thus, a Blizzard Warning has been issued for Whittier beginning 11am this morning. Attention then shifts to a potent short-wave crossing the top of the Bering ridge. It will dig southeastward across Southwest AK today and into the western Gulf tonight into Wednesday, bringing another round of cold air advection and winds with it. The area of strongest advection will be across the Alaska Peninsula, the western Gulf coastal waters, and Kodiak Island. Have upped winds in the latest forecast, with wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph expected, strongest through channeled terrain. Meanwhile, a much weaker short-wave trough over interior AK, will dig southeastward just ahead of the Bering short-wave. It will cross Southcentral from west to east this afternoon through Wednesday. There may be some flurries or very light snow right ahead of it as it crosses interior Southcentral, but forcing is weak and the air mass is dry so it won't be much. The northern end of the much stronger short-wave will slowly approach Southcentral Wednesday and looks increasingly likely to generate light snow from Prince William Sound across the Cordova/Valdez areas and northward into the Copper River Basin. This snow will then exit eastward to McCarthy and the far eastern Copper Basin Wednesday night as the upper trough marches eastward. There could be some localized areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities, most notably through Thompson Pass and Valdez on Wednesday. The bigger story will be the reinforcing shot of Arctic air accompany these short-waves. This will cause gap winds to restrengthen, especially along the western Alaska Range and the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. Upper level flow will be out of the northwest, which is much different than most of the windstorms of the past month. Thus, strong winds will be confined mostly to bays and passes and will not be as widespread. Thankfully, this pattern is NOT favorable for the Matanuska Valley where winds in Palmer and Wasilla will be fairly light. Dry and very cold conditions will settle back over the region as we begin the new year. -SEB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)... The large scale pattern in place across the Bering and Southwest is little changed compared to yesterday. A stout upper ridge is making slow but steady progress eastwards this morning, allowing relatively light winds and dry conditions to spread across the central/eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs. Farther west, a front associated with an North Pacific low is approaching the western Aleutians from the south, spreading low-end Gale force winds into western parts of the Chain. Across the AKPen, very strong and gusty north winds persist this morning, fueled by strong northerly flow between the Bering ridge and a deep low meandering across the Gulf. The strongest winds have been reaching Storm force at times along the Pacific side of the AKPen, recently captured by multiple remote sensing instruments, including a couple synthetic aperture radar (SAR) passes. Areas of resuspended dust and ash from a few volcanoes lining the southern AKPen continue to show up intermittently thanks to the strong northerly winds. Across the remainder of Southwest, clear, cold and windy conditions persist by and large. For the near term outlook, no major changes have been made from prior expectations. The Bering front will continue to make steady northeast progress into the western and central Bering through midweek, spreading mainly rain across the Aleutian Chain as it moves across. Precipitation could start out as snow in the Pribilofs as the front moves in Wednesday afternoon, but a fairly quick transition to rain is likely by Wednesday evening. as warmer air along the boundary pushes through. Across Southwest, a weak low and trailing front currently moving across the far northern Bering is on track to push a quick shot of snow showers across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening into early Wednesday. Moisture support for snow along this incoming front still looks unimpressive, with perhaps as much as a quick inch of new snowfall anticipated as the front races past tonight. Across the rest of Southwest, cold and dry conditions will persist through Thursday as north winds gradually die down. For the Alaska Peninsula region, very strong and gusty northerly winds will continue today, weakening slightly by Wednesday, then coming down more sharply by Thursday as the Bering ridge erodes and as the Gulf low weakens. -AS && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... A rex block will be in place at the start of the long term forecast period with ridging over the central Bering Sea and troughing over mainland Alaska and the western Bering Sea. Cold temperatures will descend over southern Alaska where areas of the Kuskokwim Delta may see temperatures as low as 40 below zero. Most of mainland will be under dry conditions while the Aleutians continue a showery regime. The main weather maker at the end of the weekend will be an Aleutian low as it progresses eastward and breaks down the Bering ridge. Deterministic models are in fairly good agreement for being this far out in time, currently prognosticating between 950 to 960 mb as it moves into the Bering Sea on Sunday. Expect high winds to possible storm-force as this system traverses over the Chain. Moderate to heavy precipitation looks likely as moist southerly flow associated with the frontal system moves over southern Alaska. This will be one to keep an eye on going forward. && .AVIATION... PANC...Gusty winds will finally die down today, slowly diminishing through the morning hours. A weak upper short-wave digging into Southcentral from the Interior tonight, will keep some clouds overhead, though mostly mid to high clouds. There is a just a slight chance of ceilings dropping to 5000 feet or a bit lower as the trough crosses overhead between 09Z and 15Z. && $$